SW Monsoon makes weathermen happy http://www.financia ASHOK B SHARMA Posted: Oct 01, 2008 at 2247 hrs IST Updated: Oct 01, 2008 at 2247 hrs IST New Delhi, Oct 1 : The South-West Monsoon may have made the weathermen happy as their forecast have come true, but the erratic rains in July have caused a setback to coarse cereals, pulses and commercial crops like oilseeds, sugarcane, jute and cotton. The official weather forecasting agency, India Meteorological Department had on June 30 predicted that the average cumulative monsoon rainfall over the country in the 4-month monsoon season beginning June 1 would be 100% of the long period average (LPA) of 89 cm subjected to a model error of +/-4%. With the close of the monsoon season on September 30, the country has registered an average cumulative rainfall of 98% of the LPA. IMD's earlier forecast made on April 16, this year about rainfall amounting to 99% of LPA with a model error of +/-5% also proved to be correct. FE on September 29 had analysed the rainfall data and had said that IMD's forecast for the country and three homogenous regions would prove to be correct. Briefing newspersons in Capital on Wednesday, the IMD director general Ajit Tyagi said : "Our long range forecast for the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole and over different homogenous regions with the exception of northwest India have been accurate.". He also praised the efficacy of models deployed for the forecast The IMD's miserably failed in predicting the rainfall in July, the month crucial for sowing operations. IMD had said that the July rainfall over the country would be 98% of the LPA of 29.3 cm with a model error of +/-9%, while it proved out to be 83% of the LPA. Taiga in an apologetic tone said : "The prediction overestimated the July rainfall for the country as a whole." Tthe erratic rains in July in Gujarat, Maharashtra and most of the southern half of the country took a toll on standing crops and delayed sowing operation in the crucial agricultural month. Monsoon revived only towards the end of July and good rains continued leading to floods in Bihar and Orissa. Due to erratic rains in July sowing of sowing of coarse cereals like jowar, bajra, maize and oilseeds like groundnut suffered a setback. The area under arhar (red gram), urad (black gram) and moong (green gram) shrunk. Area under cotton declined as farmers switched over to paddy cultivation owing to bad experience of mealy bug on Bt cotton in the previous year. Sowing of sugarcane and jute suffered a setback due to erratic rains in July. The IMD underestimated is forecast for northwest India by predicting rainfall of 96% of the LPA of 61.2 cm with a model error of +/-8%. The actual rainfall over this region turned out to be 107% of the LPA. The forecast for 101% of the LPA (142.9 cm) rains with a model error of +/-8% proved to be correct when in actual it turned out to be 94% of the LPA. Similarly is the case for central India where IMD had predicted rains of 101% of the LPA (99.4 cm) with a model error of +/-8% when in actual it turned out to be 96% of the LPA. For south India IMD again scored a point. It had predicted rainfall of 98% of the LPA (72.5 cm) while in actual it turned out to be 96% of the LPA. Another serious concern is loss of crops, livestock and property on account of floods in different parts of the country. The National Disaster Management Division has estimated this loss at Rs 267673.28 lakh The uneven temporal distribution of rainfall caused floods in many states like Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, West Bengal, Orissa, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Delhi, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh, the IMD said. The floods in Bihar was primarily due to damage done to the embankment of the transboundary, river, Kosi in Nepal The South-West Monsoon closed with wet regions all over the country with the exception of western Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Kerala, Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland and Tripura. The wet soil would congenial for sowing of rabi (winter crops) ------------ Weathermen upbeat on forecast as SW monsoon showers nature's bounty http://www.financia ASHOK B SHARMA Posted: Sep 29, 2008 at 2318 hrs IST Updated: Sep 29, 2008 at 2318 hrs IST New Delhi, Sept 28 : With the four-month south-west monsoon season approaching to a close by the end of this month, the weathermen are upbeat that their forecast would prove correct. The official weather forecasting agency, the India Meteorological Department had predicted that the average cumulative monsoon rainfall over the country would be 100% of the long period average (LPA) of 89 cm subjected to a model error of +/-4%. The rainfall data till September 26 show that the country has received 86.42 cm rain, which is just 1% below the LPA for the period. The IMD had said that northwest India will have rains amounting to 96% of its LPA (61.2 cm), while so far the region has received rains aggregating to 108% of its LPA, exceeding the forecast. Till September 26, central India received rains amounting to 98% of its LPA, while IMD's forecast was for 101% of LPA (99.4 cm) rain by the end of the month. South peninsular India recorded rains amounting to 100% of its LPA for the period (till Sept 26), while IMD's forecast stands at 98% of LPA (72.5 cm) by September 30. For northeast India, IMD had predicted rains amounting to 10% of its LPA (142.9 cm), while the region has received rains aggregating to 93% of its LPA by September 26. The forecast model error for all the four homogenous regions is +/-8%. On the whole it may turn out to be a victory for IMD's forecast, but the erratic rains in July in Gujarat, Maharashtra and most of the southern half of the country took a toll on standing crops and delayed sowing operations in the crucial agricultural month. The monsoon revived only towards the end of July and good rains continued leading to floods in Bihar and Orissa. Due to erratic rains in July, sowing of coarse cereals like jowar, bajra, maize and oilseeds suffered a setback. Area under arhar (red gram), urad (black gram) and moong (green gram) shrunk. Area under cotton declined as farmers switched over to paddy cultivation owing to a bad experience of the mealy bug on Bt cotton. Sowing of sugarcane and jute also suffered a setback. According to the rainfall data, the average cumulative rainfall has been good all over the country, with the exception of western Madhya Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura. At the micro level 78% of the meteorological districts received normal to excess rains, while 21% received deficient rains and 1% received scanty rains. As major parts of the country received good rains in the south-west monsoon season and the soil has enough moisture content, it may boost crops in the upcoming rabi (winter) season. ------------ Assocham calls for decentralised water management http://www.financia ASHOK B SHARMA Posted: Sep 29, 2008 at 2309 hrs IST Updated: Sep 29, 2008 at 2309 hrs IST New Delhi, Sept 28 : The impact of global climate change is being felt worldwide with changing weather conditions and erratic behaviour of monsoon rains. The incidences of drought, floods, cyclones, storm surges and natural calamities have become frequent. These call for effective management of the precious resource: water. The Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry (Assocham) in its recent study - Water: The Myths and the Mysteries - has said, "Agriculture in India, as in many other developing countries, has continued to be the single largest user of water, accounting for as much as 85% of the total annual withdrawals. It is often felt that the availability of cheap water to agriculture has tended to encourage its pre-emption for low value, high volume use and has encouraged its waste and profligate consumption" The Assocham study also pointed out the over exploitation of groundwater in Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu. "While past efforts at water management have tended to focus on expansion of physical availability, this alone would not be enough to meet the water challenges of the next century. Privatisation of water is aggressively exported to the developing world under the rubric of poverty reduction and debt relief strategies, free trade and economic development. By turning a scarce resource into an economic commodity, the world's economic leaders and policy planners claim that existing water resources can be managed and consumed efficiently in accordance with competitive market principles which does not holds completely true," the study said. It further said that some of the emerging policy and institutional challenges in the field of were in terms of identifying property rights structure for water, examining alternative institutional structures for decentralisation, overcoming institutional bottlenecks in the development of groundwater and carrying out institutional reforms in drinking water utilities. The Assocham study, in its recommendations, has suggested the role of multi-stakeholders, policy makers, private sector, NGOs and local authorities in achieving the goal for decentralised water management. ------------ Met dept predicts more rain for flood-affected Orissa http://www.financia ASHOK B SHARMA Posted: Sep 23, 2008 at 0043 hrs IST Updated: Sep 23, 2008 at 0043 hrs IST Bhubaneswar, Sept 22 : After Bihar, it is now the turn of Orissa to face nature's wrath. Incessant rains have swamped the Mahanadi and its tributaries, causing devastation in 17 districts of the state including Angul, Bhadrak, Bolangir, Cuttack, Gajapati, Jajpur, Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapada, Keonjhar, Kalahandi, Khorda, Puri, Nayagarh, Raygada, Subarnpur and Sambalpur. According to the reports available with the National Disaster Management Division, about 3.04 million people in 2,962 villages were severely affected, 45,190 houses were damaged and a crop area of 119.4 million hectare has been inundated. Road traffic to urban townships like Puri, Konark, Banki, Athgarh and Athmallik remains disrupted. The Orissa government, on September 21, reported to the Centre about 13 cases of loss of human life and 53 cases of livestock death. Floodwaters even entered Bhubaneswar on Sunday killing one person. With the river Mahanadi flowing near the danger-mark at certain places, the official weather forecasting agency, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), has predicted no hope of the rains receding. The IMD has said that fairly widespread rainfall would continue over Orissa in the next two to three days, while rainfall would decrease over northwest India and west central and peninsular India. The average cumulative rainfall over the country since June 1, this year has been only just 2% below the long period average (normal value) of 820.7 mm, which show that the performance is up to the mark and the weathermen's forecast seems to be proving correct ! But the havoc caused due to floods in Bihar and Orissa and the lingering dry spell over the southern half of the country in the crucial agricultural month, July still remain as scars ------------ India should follow Chinese model for flood, drought prevention http://www.financia ASHOK B SHARMA Posted: Sep 08, 2008 at 2320 hrs IST Updated: Sep 08, 2008 at 2320 hrs IST New Delhi, Sept 7 : The monsoon rains have begun showing a decreasing trend over the major parts of northwest and north India in tune with the natural cycle in the second half of the Hindu calendar month Bhadrapada. The south-west monsoon, as per its usual course, is slated to become the north-east monsoon by the middle of September or around the beginning of the Hindu month Asvina. As the axis of the monsoon trough at mean sea level remained close to the foothills of the Himalayas for over a week, it aggravated the flood situation in Bihar, eastern Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Jharkhand and northeastern India. The flood situation in Bihar took a serious turn due to damage done to embankment of the transboundary river Kosi. The government needs to deal with flood and drought prevention and management on a war footing. The country usually enjoys bountiful rains in the monsoon season, but its distribution remains erratic, leading to huge economic loss. In most of July this year, Gujarat, Maharshtra and the southern peninsula was left dry and the situation improved towards the end of the month. This situation affected sowing and the standing crops. According to the latest report of the National Disaster Management Division of the government, the damages caused to crops, livestock and property due to floods across the country in the current monsoon season have aggregated to Rs 1,88,565.37 lakh. There is a need to deploy the latest scientific technologies to deal with such emerging situations. India must take a cue from China. China undertakes cloud seeding projects to prevent the possibility of droughts in the crucial agriculture season. China has also demonstrated its capability to disperse rain clouds to prevent excess rains and floods. During the Beijing Olympics on August 9 a volley of rockets were fired in the air to ward off rain clouds, which otherwise could have been a spoilsport. In the week ended September 3, Bihar, Sikkim, West Bengal, northeastern India, Maharasthra and Karnataka (with the exception of its coastal regions), Rayalseema, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Lakshadweep received god rains, while rest of the country was dry. However, the average cumulative rainfall over the country since June 1, 2008 has been 721.4 mm, just 3% below the normal range. There was excess to normal rainfall in 29 out of 36 meteorological subdivisions, while it was deficient in only 7. The seven unfortunate meteorological subdivisions are western Madhya Pradesh, Saurashtra & Kutch, Marathwada, Vidarbha, coastal Karnataka, Kerala and parts of northeastern India comprising of Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura. The US-based Center for Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies (COLA) said that there would be good rains over peninsular India, West Bengal and northeastern India till September 13. ------------ Bihar under floods, rains recede in other parts of the country http://www.financia ASHOK B SHARMA Posted: Sep 01, 2008 at 2248 hrs IST Updated: Sep 01, 2008 at 2248 hrs IST New Delhi, Aug 31 : The month August ends with a sad note - devastation due to floods in Bihar. The situation compelled the Union government to declare it a national calamity. According to meteorological data, the state had 59% deficient rainfall in the week ended August 27. The situation changed thereafter, with the flood affected state receiving continual rainfall, which is hampering relief operations. The current situation in Bihar is largely due to rainfall in Nepal and the foothills of the Himalayas and flooding in the upstream of the transboundary river Kosi. As per reports received by the National Disaster Management Division, on August 18, a long embankment was swept away at Kushaha in Nepal, about 7 km away from the Kosi barrage at Birpur in Supaul. As a result, the river Kosi changed its course and shifted over 120 km eastwards and large parts of Supaul, Madhepura, Araria, Saharsa and Katihar were inundated, causing huge damage to life and property. Apart from crop loss and livestock death, 2,27,969 houses were damaged as per reports received from the Bihar government on August 28. The Union government has announced a relief assistance of Rs 1,000 crore (Rs 10 billion) and has released 1,25,000 of foodgrains from the central pool. The army, air force and the railways have been deployed in relief operations As the axis of the monsoon trough continues to run close to the foothills of the Himalayas, the numerical weather prediction models used by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) suggest that the monsoon trough may continue to run close to the foothills of the Himalayas during the week. Under its influence, widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls are likely over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya and sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim during the week. This situation may bring more water to the rivers in Bihar. However, the intensity of rainfall is likely to decrease during the second half of the week. In the week ended August 27, only 12 out of 36 meteorological subdivisions received excess to normal rains. Among them were Tamil Nadu, Ralayaseema, Jammu & Kaskmir, Uttrakhand, Sikkim and sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Orissa, coastal Andhra Pradesh, south interior Karnataka, Andaman & Nicobar Islands. The rest of the country was dry. Though the US-based Center for Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies (COLA) has indicated a withdrawal of the south-west Monsoon from the Rajasthan border, the IMD has yet to admit this event. COLA has predicted heavy rains at the foothills of Himalaya, eastern and northeastern India and in the southern peninsula till September 6 ------------ Monsoon may begin its early withdrawal from Rajasthan: COLA http://www.financia ASHOK B SHARMA Posted: Aug 25, 2008 at 2344 hrs IST Updated: Aug 25, 2008 at 2344 hrs IST New Delhi, Aug 24 : The south-west monsoon, despite its erratic behavior in the previous month, has managed to breach the national average. The recorded average cumulative rainfall over the country from June 1 to August 20 has been 2% more than the normal of 635.6 mm for the period. Only 5 out of 36 meteorological subdivisions received scanty rains, while 9 received excess and 22 received normal rains. At the micro-level, only 23% of the meteorological districts received deficient to scanty rains, while 77% received excess to normal rains. But there are areas of concern. Marathwada, north interior Karnataka, Kerala and a major part of northeastern India, with the exception of Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh have received poor rainfall. The week ended August 20 has shown some disturbing trends with eastern Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, north interior Karnataka, Kerala left dry. There are indications that rainfall over northwestern India and Gujarat may decrease as normal withdrawal course of the monsoon from the Rajasthan-Pakistan border begins around September 1. The country's official weather forecasting agency, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has however, so far not indicated the withdrawal of the SW-Monsoon. But the US-based Center for Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies (COLA) has predicted dry weather over Rajasthan, Gujarat and northwestern India till the end of the month, almost signifying an early withdrawal of the monsoon. COLA, in its advanced forecast till September 8, also says that these regions would be left dry. Dry weather is also predicted over major parts of Pakistan According to COLA, rainfall would not improve over Maharashtra, western Madhya Pradesh and north interior Karnataka. It would decrease over the Tamil Nadu coast, while the remaining parts of the country would experience good rains. Widespread rainfall in August has, however, caused a flood situation in major parts of the country like northwestern India, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Assam and West Bengal. According to the August 21 data of the Central Water Commission, there were four high, 22 moderate and 28 low flood situations in different reservoirs in the country. The total loss of crops, livestock and property on account of the floods in the monsoon season has accumulated to Rs 78,076.44 lakh. IMD, based on numerical weather products, has predicted fairly widespread rainfall activity over northeastern states, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, Bihar and east Uttar Pradesh till August 27. Scattered rains or thundershowers are likely over the extreme south peninsula. Rainfall would be subdued over the rest of the country. ------------ Sravana leaves a trail of floods http://www.financia ASHOK B SHARMA Posted: Aug 18, 2008 at 0112 hrs IST Updated: Aug 18, 2008 at 0112 hrs IST New Delhi, Aug 17 : The Hindu calendar month Sravana ultimately had its way. This month ended on August 16 with a flood situation in many reservoirs in the country. According to the August 13 report of the Central Water Commission, there were 15 moderate and 23 low flood situations in different parts of the country, including Assam, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Gujarat, and Maharashtra. The Natural Disaster Management Division (NDMD) under the Union home ministry has noted the damages due to heavy rains and floods in different parts of the country. According to the NDMD report of August 13, the total damage to crops, livestock and property is estimated at Rs 73912.235 lakh. The month, Sravana, which usually extends from mid-July to mid-August is known to be associated with heavy rains. The south-west monsoon hits the mainland at the Kerala coast around June 1 - in the middle of the Hindu month Jyastha. The subsequent months-Asadha and Sravana- usually give good rains. However, in this year, there was an aberration in the July rainfall, with Gujarat, Maharashtra and the southern part of the country remaining dry in the first half of the month. This affected the sowing of coarse cereals, pulses and some oilseeds like groundnut. The monsoon system revived over the southern peninsula only towards the end of July. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the countrywide average cumulative rainfall since June 1 has been fairly good with 32 out of 36 meteorological subdivisions receiving normal to excess rains. Only Marathwada, Kerala and parts of northeastern India, with the exception of Arunachal Pradesh, received deficient rains. At a micro-level, 77% of the meteorological districts received normal to excess rain. According to IMD, the countrywide rainfall was good in the week ended August 13, with only Himachal Pradesh, western UP, Tamil Nadu, and Lakshadweep receiving deficient rains. Based on numerical weather products, IMD has predicted fairly widespread rainfall over the Gangetic plains and northeastern states in the next two days and subdued rainfall over Peninsular India. The US-based Center for Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies (COLA) in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, northeastern states, eastern Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Telangana, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Orissa till August 21. It has also predicted good rainfall along the west coast. Good rainfall would continue till the end of August in northeastern India and parts of eastern India. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) has also indicated good rains, as the spoilsport, El Nino (warming of Pacific waters above normal) would not emerge. It has also predicted favourable conditions in equatorial Indian Ocean. ------------ Forecast rosy; Maharashtra, K'taka yet to receive their rainfall quota http://www.financia ASHOK B SHARMA Posted: Aug 11, 2008 at 0133 hrs IST Updated: Aug 11, 2008 at 0133 hrs IST New Delhi, Aug 10 : The official weather forecasting agency, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that Orissa, coastal and northern Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and eastern Madhya Pradesh would receive good rainfall in this week. This is due to the low pressure area formed on August 8 over northwest and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal, off the coasts of Orissa and West Bengal. Subsequently, the rainfall belt is likely to shift to Maharashtra and Gujarat. "The off shore trough from Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast persists. It is likely to cause fairly widespread rainfall activity along the west coast", IMD said Based on numerical weather products, IMD has also said that till August 13 there would be enhanced rainfall over coastal Karnataka, Konkan and Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada and Gujarat Rainfall over northeastern and northwest India would be scattered and would subsequently decrease. However, the US-based Center for Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies (COLA), in its forecast, does not indicate any such decrease in rainfall over both the northeastern and northwestern regions of the country, except the region bordering Pakistan and parts of Kashmir, till August 16. According to COLA, the entire northern half of the country, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh and the west coast would receive rainfall amounting to 200 mm. Heavy rainfall would continue over Bihar, Jharkhand and northeastern India till August 25. It is pertinent to note that July rainfall in the first half had been very disappointing in the southern half of the country. The situation began gradually improving in the second half of the month. But the average cumulative rainfall over Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, north interior Karnataka, coastal Karnataka and Kerala is still deficient. Northeastern India, with the exception of Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh also continue to remain rainfall deficient areas. The countrywide cumulative rainfall since June 1, 2008 has been just 1% below the normal of 512.1 mm. At the micro-level, 71% of the meteorological districts received normal to excess rains, 27% received deficient rains and 2% received scanty rains In the week ended August 6, there was good rainfall in different parts of the country, with the exception of coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Lakshadweep, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal. The overall performance of the SW Monsoon may look rosy, but its erratic behaviour in the southern peninsula and Gujarat in the first half of July, the crucial month, has taken a toll on crops. ------------ Wet days ahead for west coast; rains may diminish over South http://www.financia ASHOK B SHARMA Posted: Aug 04, 2008 at 0055 hrs IST Updated: Aug 04, 2008 at 0055 hrs IST New Delhi, Aug 3 : According to major forecasts, the west coast of the country would receive a heavy downpour this week. The southern peninsular along with Gujarat and Maharashtra, but with the exception of Kerala, had received good rainfall in the last week of July. In the week ahead there are indications that rainfall over Tamil Nadu may turn deficient and lessen over some parts of south India. In the last week of July, the average cumulative rainfall over the country was low by just 6% as some areas of the northern half of the country like Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, western UP, Western Rajasthan, Bihar, West Bengal, Sikkim, eastern MP, northeastern India and some parts of southern India like Kerala and Lakshadweep received poor rainfall. However, this situation does not invite a problem, as most of these regions had earlier received good rainfall and there is no immediate indication for continuing deficient rainfall in these regions. The country's official weather forecast agency, India Meteorological Department (IMD) in its forecast for the period August 4 to 6, based on numerical models has said, "Rainfall activity over the southern peninsula would decrease." However, according to the US-based Center for Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies (COLA), there is a possibility of deficient rainfall only in Tamil Nadu. The entire west coast including Kerala would receive excess rainfall amounting to 200 mm. In parts of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Maharashtra rainfall would diminish and be to the extent of 35 mm by August 9. From August 10, the situation would improve and most parts of the country would receive good rainfall. IMD has said that till August 6, there would be fairly widespread rainfall along the west coast, interior Maharashtra and Gujarat. Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall would occur in northeastern India and the northeastern states. IMD further said, "Interpretation of numerical weather prediction models indicate the formation of a low pressure area/cyclonic circulation over west central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal around August 3. With its likely northwestwards movement, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra are likely to receive fairly widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy to very heavy falls during August 3 to 5. Rainfall activity is also likely to increase along the west coast, particularly over Konkan and Goa from August 5 onwards." ------------ Dry spell over; rains to hit back with vengeance, predicts weather office http://www.financia ASHOK B SHARMA Posted: Jul 28, 2008 at 0148 hrs IST Updated: Jul 28, 2008 at 0148 hrs IST New Delhi, July 25 : The monsoon system is gearing up to bestow rains on the parched soils of Gujarat and peninsular India after two weeks of dry weather. There have been some rains in Gujarat and other parts of western India since July 24. The weather advisory issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on July 25, said, "Numerical weather prediction models continue to suggest a southward shift of the monsoon trough from tomorrow onwards and the subsequent formation of a low pressure area over west-central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal around July 27. Under this scenario, rainfall activity is likely to increase considerably over central India adjoining peninsular India during the next 3 to 4 days. The ongoing rainfall activity over Kerala, coastal Karnataka, Konkan, and Goa is likely to continue and extend into Gujarat during the next 3 to 4 days". Earlier, both The Financial Express and The Indian Express on July 21, quoting global forecast agencies, had said that the monsoon system over peninsular India would revive after July 27. The forecasts of global agencies have assured the least possibility of emergence of the El Nino factor, which dispels the apprehension of severe drought this year. The US-based Center for Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies (COLA) has predicted good rains over the country till August 11. The average cumulative rainfall recorded by IMD for the current monsoon season till July 23 shows that it has been deficient over central India by 15% and over south peninsular India by 32%. The rain deficient areas are Gujarat, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Assam, Megahalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura. In the week ended July 23, there was good rainfall over the northeastern parts of the country, which had earlier received deficient rainfall, like Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura. Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu received excess rain. In peninsular India, Tamil Nadu is the only state, which has been receiving good rain so far. But Rajasthan and western MP received scanty rain and eastern MP, Chattisgarh and Orissa received deficient rain in the week ended July 23 - a situation which may invite concern. Rainfall deficiency in July, the month crucial for Indian agriculture, has affected standing crops in south India, where farmers began sowing with the early arrival of the monsoon and bountiful rainfall in June. The area coverage under some crops like red gram, black gram, green gram and other pulses, groundnut, sunflower, sesamum, niger, castor, jowar, maize suffered a setback due to erratic rains in July. The area under cotton shrunk, as farmers switched over to paddy cultivation, particularly in the Malwa region in Punjab on account of bad experience of the mealy bug on Bt cotton. ------------ Rainfall in peninsular India may improve by July-end Emergence of El Nino ruled ou, which removes severe drought possibility ASHOK B SHARMA Posted online: Monday, July 21, 2008 at 0025 hrs New Delhi, July 20: The July rainfall has practically disappointed farmers in the southern peninsula, Gujarat, Maharashtra and parts of northeastern India. The official weather forecasting agency, India Meteorological Department (IMD), has not extended any immediate hope for the revival of the situation. Its numerical weather prediction models have said "subdued rainfall activity would continue over central and western India in the next three to four days". The US-based Center for Ocean Land Atmosphere Administration (COLA) in its short-term forecast for the period till July 26 has also confirmed low rainfall of 20 to 35 mm in western and parts of central and southern India. It, however, predicted heavy rainfall of over 150 mm in the heartland of north India, eastern and northeastern India, Andhra Pradesh and parts of central India. According to COLA, the situation is likely to improve after July 27, when most parts of the country would receive good showers. The other US-based agencies like Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction and weather service of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have noted the transition from La Nina to neutral conditions in the central and east-central equitorial Pacific during June. La Nina or cooling of Pacific waters below normal is usually responsible for good rains and the country enjoyed good rains in June, this year. However, the possibility of emergence of the spoilsport, El Nino (warming of Pacific waters) is ruled out. This dispels the apprehensions of a severe drought year to an extent. Weather conditions also depend upon the surrounding sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRICS) predicted "a weak positive dipole" in the equatorial Indian Ocean with slightly below average SSTs near Indonesia and slightly above average SSTs near the African coast. July rainfall is crucial for Indian agriculture in the four-month S-W Monsoon season. The IMD has predicted the country will receive rainfall amounting to 98% of its long period average of 293 mm on cumulative basis in July, subject to a model error of +/-9%. Till the middle of the month the cumulative rainfall has been 321.8 mm which is 4% more than the normal. But Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh and parts of northeastern India did not receive good rainfall and as a result sowing operations were badly affected in these areas. Sowing operations for groundnut, red gram, black gram, green gram, cotton, sugarcane and millets like jowar were affected. The July Fallout •13 out of 36 meteorological subdivisions received deficient rains •Marathwada worst hit •35% of meteorological districts received deficient to scanty rains •Peninsular India gets 34% less rains •Rainfall deficient over central India by 3% •Areas under groundnut, red gram, black gram, green gram, cotton, sugarcane and jowar shrink •Hope hinges on good rainfall distribution by month-end ------------ Good monsoon forecast brings hope to farmers ASHOK B SHARMA Posted online: Monday, June 30, 2008 at 2225 hrs IST New Delhi, June 30 There is some good news for Indian agriculture. The official weather forecasting agency, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has revised its forecast and predicted that the cumulative rainfall in the four-month monsoon season, beginning June would be 100% of the long period average (LPA) of 89 cm. The IMD's forecast is subjected to a model error of +/-4%, which means that the rainfall can be in the range of 96% of the LPA to 104% of the LPA. Along with the even spread of South-West monsoon rains predicted by IMD, the global forecast agencies have dispelled the fears of major flood situations, with exceptions at few places, by predicted the weakening of La Nina conditions (cooling of Pacific waters below normal) – the factor responsible for floods across the globe. Though the rainfall forecast is 100% of the LPA, the IMD has termed it as 'near normal' rainfall. This is because there is no categorization for normal rainfall in the IMD's parameters. Rainfall in the range of 96% to 104% of the LPA is termed near normal, that in the range of 90% to 96% of the LPA is termed below norm and that below 90% of the LPA is termed deficient. In its initial forecast made in April 16, this year the IMD had said that that the countrywide rainfall in the four-month monsoon season would be 99% of the long period average (LPA) rainfall for the period which is 89 cm subject to a model error of +/-5%. In its revised forecast released on Monday, the IMD has said that the countrywide rainfall in July – the month crucial for agriculture – would be 98% of the LPA of 29.3 cm, subject to a model error of +/-9%. It also said that the average cumulative rainfall over north-west India would be 96% of the LPA of 61.2 cm, subject to a model error of +/-8%. North-west India comprises of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab , Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh , Delhi , Uttaranchal and Uttar Pradesh. The rainfall over north-east India would be 101% of the LPA of 142.9 cm, subject to a model error of +/-8%. North-east India consists of Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya , Assam , Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura , Sikkim , West Bengal , Bihar and Jharkhand. For central India consisting of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra , Goa and Orissa, the IMD has predicted rainfall amounting to 101% of the LPA of 99.4 cm, subject to a model error of +/-8%. Rainfall over southern peninsula consisting of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and the island territories – Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep – would be 98% of the LPA of 72.5 cm. The US-based International Research Institute for Climate and Society has, however identified some areas of excess rainfall in the country. In its recent forecast it said: "In parts of northern India near Nepal in July-September, 2008, there is a 40% probability of that the precipitation will be in the wettest third of the years, a 35% chance it will be in the near-normal third of the years and a 25% chance that the precipitation will be in the driest third of the years." According to IRI in August there would be heavy rainfall over central India , in September and October there would be heavy rains over eastern Gujarat and Rajasthan. This year the South-West Monsoon set in over south Andaman Sea on May 10, about 5 days earlier than the normal date. It set in over Kerala coast on May 31, close to its normal date, June 1. It advanced rapidly and covered parts of south peninsula and entire northeastern region by June 2. It reached Mumbai on June 7, three days earlier than the normal date and reached southern parts of Gujarat on June 10, five days earlier. Monsoon arrived in Delhi on June 15, two weeks ahead of the schedule. But monsoon is yet to cover parts of west Rajasthan, the due date of which is July 1.Till June 25, the average cumulative rainfall over the country was 26% more than the normal, with 17 out of 36 meteorological sub-division receiving excess rains and 10 receiving normal rains. Floods were reported in some areas of excess rainfall. ------------ Monsoon to strike Kerala coast on May 29: IMD ASHOK B SHARMA Posted online: Wednesday, May 14, 2008 at 1908 hrs IST New Delhi, May 14: The official weather forecasting agency, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that the South-West Monsoon may arrive at the Kerala coast on May 29, which is three days earlier than the scheduled date. The forecast is subjected to a model error of +/- 4 days With the strengthening of monsoon winds and widespread rainfall activity, the South-West Monsoon advanced into southeast Bay of Bengal and Andaman & Nicobar Islands on May 12, almost eight days in advance. The monsoon system usually advances by its two wings ? the eastern wing which advances over Bay of Bengal and the western wing which advances over the Arabian Sea. Quoting the forecasts of global agencies, Center for Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies (COLA), International Research Institute for Climate Studies and Policy (IRI) and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast, FE on May 13 had said that the South-West Monsoon may arrive at the Kerala coast about five to seven days earlier. The IMD while making its present forecast has taken into consideration six predictors ? minimum temperature over north-west India, pre-monsoon rainfall peak over southern peninsula, outgoing long wave radiation over south China Sea, lower tropospheric zonal wind over southeast Indian Ocean, upper tropospheric zonal wind over the east equatorial Indian Ocean and outgoing long wave radiation over south-west Pacific region. The IMD, in its initial forecast made on April 16, this year had said that average cumulative rainfall over the country in the four-month monsoon season would be 99% of the long period average of 89 cm. This forecast is subjected to a model error of +/-5 %. ------------ National Network In - THE INDIAN EXPRESS Prepare for an early monsoon ASHOK B SHARMA Posted online: Tuesday, May 13, 2008 at 0033 hrs NEW DELHI, MAY 12: Here is some good news. The South-West Monsoon is likely to hit Kerala coast about five to seven days before the scheduled date of June 1. A convection developing in the Arabian Sea may cause a strong south equatorial current to push the monsoon system to the Kerala coast at an earlier date, according to some global forecast models. The forecast made by the US-based Center for Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies (COLA) shows the arrival of dark monsoon clouds along Kerala coast in May 20-28. Another US based agency, International Research Institute for Climate Studies (IRI) has predicted heavy rains on the west coast. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is expected to forecast the arrival of the monsoon at the Kerala coast within next two days. Already the persistence of convection over southeast Bay of Bengal has caused early arrival of the monsoon in the Andaman Seas. Usually the south-west monsoon arrive at south Andaman Seas around May 15. This year it arrived on May 10. According to IMD, the formation of low pressure area in the adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal coupled with further strengthening of westerlies would further cause the advancement of the monsoon in its eastern arm. The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast has also predicted on this line. Thus both the eastern and the western arms of the monsoon system are likely to cause early arrival of the monsoon on the mainland. Recent events in Malaysia, Thailand and forecasts by global agencies confirm early arrival of the monsoon. ------------ Monsoon may hit Kerala a week in advance - In THE FINANCIAL EXPRESS ASHOK B SHARMA Posted online: Tuesday , May 13, 2008 at 2158 hrs IST New Delhi, May 12 Here is some good news. The South-west Monsoon is likely to hit Kerala coast about five to seven days before the scheduled date of June 1. A convection developing in the Arabian Sea may cause a strong south equatorial current to push the monsoon system to the Kerala coast at an earlier date, according to some global forecast models. The forecast made by the US-based Center for Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies (COLA) shows the arrival of dark monsoon clouds along Kerala coast in May 20-28. Another US based agency, International Research Institute for Climate Studies has predicted heavy rains on the west coast. The India Meteorological Department is expected to forecast the arrival of the monsoon at the Kerala coast within next two days. Already the persistence convection over southeast Bay of Bengal has caused early arrival of the monsoon in the Andaman Seas. Usually, the south-west monsoon arrive at the South Andaman Seas around May 15. This year it arrived on May 10. Weather forecasters have predicted widespread rains over Andaman and Nicobar islands during the next three to four days and further strengthening of westerly winds in the region. According to IMD, the formation of low pressure area in the adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal coupled with further strengthening of westerlies would further cause the advancement of the monsoon in its eastern arm. The European Centre for medium range weather forecast has also predicted on this line. Thus, both the eastern and the western arms of the monsoon system are likely to cause early arrival of the monsoon on the mainland. Recent events in Malaysia, Thailand and forecasts by global agencies confirm early arrival of the monsoon. India?s 750 million farmers rely on the timing of the June-September monsoon season to decide which crops to grow. ------------ In THE INDIAN EXPRESS - Front Page - April 15, 2008 First monsoon trend is positive, La Nina means good rains ASHOK B SHARMA Posted online: Tuesday, April 15, 2008 at 0040 hrs NEW DELHI, APRIL 14: Ahead of this week?s official April forecast for the monsoon by the India Meteorology Department (IMD), the US-based International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) has said there is hope for good rains in the first half of the four-month monsoon season beginning June. The rainfall intensity may taper off in the last two months of the season. The IRI map shows that in the first two months of the monsoon season, there will be good rains in the southern peninsula and parts of central India. In August-September, apart from peninsular India, there will be good rains in Gujarat and parts of Rajasthan and in the plains of the eastern Himalayas. There is only a distant possibility of the spoilsport El Nino (warming of the Pacific water above normal) emerging in the period in the Nino 3.4 region ? the region in the Pacific which influences Indian monsoons. In fact, the IRI sees the presence of the opposite phenomena La Nina (cooling of the Pacific waters below normal). Historically, La Nina causes good rains. But La Nina is on a weakening trend. According to IRI, the 85% to 75% probability of La Nina in April and May would come down to 60% to 50% in June, the first month of the monsoon season. In July, the probability estimate remains in the range of 50% to 40%. In September, the last month of the monsoon season, the probability of La Nina would come down to 35% to 30%. But the El Nino factor is seen low at 5% to 20% in the monsoon period, while neutral condition could range from 5% to a maximum 50%. Given the gradual decline of the La Nina factor, the good rains in the first two months of the monsoon season may taper off towards the end. There is also a possibility of early arrival on the southwest monsoon, sometime in May due to the higher influence of the La Nina factor. The IRI is slated to update its forecast on April 17. But the US-based Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), confirming the gradual decline of the La Nino factor, said: ?La Nina is expected to continue for the next three months... Nino 3.4 region indicate La Nina will become weak and persist through May-June-July 2008.? La Nina has already caused heavy rainfall over Indonesia. According to IRI, western equatorial Indian Ocean has below normal temperatures while the eastern part has temperatures above the normal. The below normal temperature conditions in western Indian Ocean is likely to weaken slowly. ------------ Good rains expected in SW Monsoon: IMD ASHOK B SHARMA Posted online: Wednesday, April 16, 2008 at 1918 hrs IST New Delhi, April 16: The official weather forecasting agency, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that the countrywide rainfall in the four-month monsoon season, beginning June would be 99% of the long period average (LPA) rainfall for the period which is 89 cm. The forecast is subjected to a model error of +/-5%. Making this initial forecast for the South-West Monsoon, IMD said that it would be "near normal" rainfall as it has revised its categorization of rainfall basing on 1901-2005 data. In the revised categorization there is no normal rainfall. Rainfall in the range of 96% to 104% of the LPA is termed near normal, that in the range of 90% to 96% of the LPA is termed below norm and that below 90% of the LPA is termed deficient. Rainfall in the range of in the range of 104% to 110% of the LPA is termed above normal and that above 110% is termed excess. The Union Minister for Science and Technology and Earth Sciences, Kapil Sibal releasing the forecast said, "the presence of La Nina factor (cooling of Pacific waters below normal) would boost the prospects of good monsoon rains. The recent global dynamical and statistical models say that La Nina will become weak but persist for the next three months." The Indian Express and The Financial Express on April 15 quoting IRI data had said La Nina would cause good rains in the first two months. Sibal said that IMD while making its forecast had taken help of both statistical and dynamical models. The dynamical models works well for peninsular India and northeastern region. The leader of the monsoon forecast team, M Rajeevan said that a set of 5 predictors were used for making this initial forecast like North Atlantic sea surface temperature in December and January, equatorial southeast Indian Ocean temperature in Feberuary and March, east Asia mean sea level pressure in February and March, north-west Europe land surface air temperature in January and equatorial Pacific warm water volume in February and March. The IMD would consider another set of 6 predictors while making the final forecast for the season in June. In May the IMD would predict the date of arrival of the South-West Monsoon at the Kerala coast. Global climate change and its impact on Indian weather and monsoons is the issue which Indian meteorologists are exploring to understand. In last March there was unusual heavy rains in the four southern states ? Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu, causing damage to the standing crops. In Tamil Nadu the rainfall was in excess of 801%, that in Kerala in excess of 469%, that in Karnataka in excess of 1666% and that in Andhra Pradesh in excess of 811%. This year's March rainfall was a all time high record in Tamil Nadu, Karnakata and Kerala since 1875, while in Andhra Pradesh it was the second highest since 1875. There was practically no winter rains over north and northwest India in 2007-08, but there was a sudden spurt of heavy rains and thundershowers in the region on April 4, 2008 leading to cloudy weather for the next three days. In past there has been cases of sudden spurt in day temperatures in early February causing damage to wheat crop.... ------------ |
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