To save our nation from energy disaster there are no alternatives to exploration and discovery of oil, gas and coal fields with our own financial and technical resources. Like agriculture and education, we need a separate national budget exclusively for exploration and drilling and there should be no two ways about it, writes Dr Aftab Alam Khan
Way out of an impending
energy disaster
NATURAL resources like gas and coal are the most important raw materials for electricity generation. Energy is the backbone of national development and energy solvency largely depends on the generation of electricity. We generate 80 per cent of electricity from natural gas that consume about 51 per cent of our daily gas production and the remaining 20 per cent is produced from oil, coal, and water combined. Forty-nine per cent of the daily gas production is consumed for fertiliser, industrial and domestic purposes. The present electricity demand is about 5,000 megawatts while the electricity generation capacity is about 4,200MW, of which around 3,600-3,800MW is being generated every day. Approximately, 3,100MW electricity is being generated by gas that requires around 800mmcfd of gas. The hydroelectricity project at Kaptai contributes a maximum of 100MW to the national grid. The remaining 600MW or so is being produced by oil and diesel and solely depends on the import of crude oil.
The national daily demand of electricity will be about 15,000MW by 2020. To meet such a huge demand, the country will require gas production to the tune of 4,500mmcfd. In addition, about 4,000mmcfd will be needed for fertiliser and other industrial productions. On the other hand, the demand for domestic use is also growing fast. So, the gas demand for electricity, fertiliser, industries, and domestic use will be more than 8,500mmcfd by 2020. It is clear that the demand for gas will increase threefold in 2020. Surprisingly, Wood Mackenzie, a reputed energy consultant from the United Kingdom, hired by Petrobangla, calculated the gas demand scenario of Bangladesh for 2020 on a wrong demand estimate of about 4,000mmcfd. Considering 6 per cent GDP growth for 2020, total gas consumption would be more than 12tcf, while for 7 per cent GDP growth it would be more than 13tcf.
How much reserve of gas do we actually have? Two estimates of gas reserve as of December 2003, done by the National Committee of Gas Demand and Reserve 2002, suggest that in 2007 the recoverable gas reserve would be around 9.5tcf (conservative estimate) and 12.8tcf (liberal estimate) respectively. As of June 2000, our net recoverable gas reserve was 9.7tcf for all the discovered fields except Bibiyana. On the other hand, we have already consumed about 3tcf gas up to 2007. Subtracting 3tcf from 9.7tcf and adding 2.5tcf (?) from Bibiyana, we are actually left with 9.2tcf of gas. So it does not require any explanation as to how shall we meet the target of 15,000MW daily electricity demand by 2020 when our gas reserve will be empty even much before 2020 unless new gas fields are discovered. The bottom line is that new discoveries shall have to be made by our own financial and technical resources.
In the onshore blocks, especially blocks 12, 13, 14, 15, and 16, several international oil companies have already relinquished their rights on the acreage from further exploration. The relinquished acreage must be given to BAPEX immediately on a priority basis for exploration and drilling of new discoveries. If any future discoveries are made by international oil companies, it will bring no true solution to the energy crisis rather will aggravate it. The manipulated and flawed cost recovery mechanism of production-sharing contracts and the purchase of our own gas at international price from international oil companies have already incurred irreparable damage to our national economy. Possibly, we cannot have any more luxury to afford any further damage. The manipulations and flaws of production-sharing contracts are exemplified from Cairn's classic cost recovery of $89 million to $267 million in Sangu gas.
This is not the end of the story. Sangu was declared with a net recoverable gas reserve of 0.85tcf. Cairn will take 0.12tcf as cost recovery. The rest should be shared in accordance with the production-sharing contract as 30 per cent equal to 0.26tcf for Cairn and 70 per cent equal to 0.51tcf for Petrobangla. So, Cairn was supposed to get the benefit of 0.38tcf. Today, it appears that Sangu has much less recoverable reserve (about 0.5tcf) than what was declared. It is evident from the very sharp decline from 120mmcfd to as low as 50mmcfd in the daily production of gas from Sangu. Hence, the reality is that Cairn got the benefit of 0.24tcf and Petrobangla will get the benefit 0.26tcf. On top of that Cairn took the PSC advantage of 7.2 per cent yearly production of the exorbitant total recoverable reserve and eventually destroyed the gas reservoir. The PSC does not have any clause for compensation even though it is proved Cairn has destroyed the reservoir.
Similarly, we are purchasing gas from our own discovered Jalalabad field (0.9tcf) worth Tk 17,500 crore ($2.5 billion) from Unocal at about $3 per 1,000cft and selling at about $1.5 per 1,000cft. Possibly, we will continue to purchase until the Jalalabad field is exhausted. Unocal is taking straightaway 30 per cent (0.27tcf) gas worth $800 million as profit share having invested only $55 million, that too possibly was a ghost payment. At the end of the day, we will have to give subsidy of about $400 million from our revenue earning. The nation has possibly earned only $55 million giving away the Jalalabad field to Unocal in such an unfair way. Unfortunately, the same is applied for Moulvibazar gas field where the Magurchara blow-out occurred due to absolute negligence causing 267bcf gas loss and other environmental damage. Although the Moulvibazar gas reserve was estimated by Occidental, the discovery of very good structure for gas reserve was discovered earlier by our own effort. If Moulvibazar structure had not been given to Occidental, the nation could derive the benefit of 350bcf gas.
Our next energy resource is coal, which is one of the most important raw materials needed for electricity generation. Coal has been used for electricity generation globally for centuries. The economic deposit of high grade bituminous coal in Bangladesh was discovered quite a long back. However, out of five discovered fields only the Barapukuria coal field has gone into production for some years. The four coal fields, except the Jamalganj field, because it simply cannot be mined, together contain about 1,000 million tonnes of coal reserve. The pertinent question is whether we can derive maximum benefit from such a deposit or not.
It is absolutely clear that open-pit mining in Bangladesh will never be possible, although some vested interest groups are trying to make the ball roll in favour of open-pit mine. Hence, only underground mining of the discovered fields can recover a maximum of 200 million tonnes of coal during the mine lifetime. If all the mines attain full-phase production limit even then the yearly production of five million tonnes, as opined by some energy experts, would be very hard to achieve. Even if a daily production of 13,700 tonnes (5 million tonnes yearly) coal is achieved and the entire coal is used for electricity generation, it will generate a maximum of 2,000MW daily. At present 250 megawatt electricity is being produced daily from the plants at Barapukuria at the expense of 1,200 million tonnes of local coal and 800 million tonnes of low-grade (possibly lignite) imported coal. It is learnt that to increase the efficiency of Barapukuria power plants high-grade coal will be imported from abroad at $170 per tonne against the present international price of $70 per tonne. We have already explored 12 basins in the north-western shelf, of which only 4 basins contain coal at exploitable depths. Only time will tell if any further coal exploration programme is undertaken.
Those who think of importing crude oil and coal to replace gas-run power plants after 2011 may be living in fool's paradise. Currently, we are importing crude oil worth of about Tk 10,000 crore every year to meet the requirement of a small percentage of daily electricity production and other purposes. It is needless to say that total dependence on imported crude oil and coal for power generation is a fairytale. To save our nation from energy disaster there are no alternatives to exploration and discovery of oil, gas and coal fields with our own financial and technical resources. Like agriculture and education, we need a separate national budget exclusively for exploration and drilling and there should be no two ways about it.
Dr Aftab Alam Khan is professor, Department of Geology, Dhaka University
Resetting local government
in Bangladesh
A strong local government system through the devolution of authority and fiscal transfer has been an expectation of the people for long. The local government and decentralisation has also been the centrepiece of debate and discussion among civil societies, local-level government institutions, researchers, policymakers, and donors over the past decade. Moreover, with every change of government, there has been renewed focus on local governance and decentralisation. Still, local governance and decentralisation is yet to transform in the shape envisaged in the constitution. It continues to be manipulated to serve the sweet will and wishes of the government of the day, writes Majibar Rahman
THE present structure of local government in Bangladesh is an infringement of the constitution. It is guaranteed in the constitution (articles 9, 11, 59 and 60) that people's active participation should be ensured at all levels of administration. However, the local government used to be a tool to collect revenue by the masqueraders during the British rule and an agent of the provincial government during the Pakistan era. Now, it is an extended hand of the central government. The local government has never been by the people, of the people and for the people. It seems that neither are the bureaucrats sincere to strengthen the local government nor do the people's representatives have the courage, interest and genuine capacity to steer it in a proper way.
We say three tiers of local governments, i.e. union, upazila and district councils, are in existence in Bangladesh. The question is: How far is the claim compatible with the ground realities? Except union parishad, which is composed of people's representatives, the other tiers are constituted, administered and led by public officials.
A strong local government system through the devolution of authority and fiscal transfer has been an expectation of the people for long. The local government and decentralisation has also been the centrepiece of debate and discussion among civil societies, local-level government institutions, researchers, policymakers, and donors over the past decade. Moreover, with every change of government, there has been renewed focus on local governance and decentralisation. Still, local governance and decentralisation is yet to transform in the shape envisaged in the constitution. It continues to be manipulated to serve the sweet will and wishes of the government of the day.
Gram Bangla our identity
The recommendations of the local government policy advocacy body, constituted by the present government, appear very conventional. While the issue of governance has been underscored, extensive participation at the grassroots has not been ensured in the recommended mechanism. In the existing ward system, 40,500 union parishad members belong to an equal number of villages. What about the remaining 25,000-30,000 villages? Even if the number of wards were to be increased from 9 to 12-15, more than 20 per cent of the villages would still not have their representatives on union parishad. Are we not then starting the voyage of democracy by excluding at least 20 per cent of the villages?
The village stands on its own by geographical boundary, family tradition, social custom and values, the village stands and can be clearly defined from sociological, socio-economic, anthropological, historical, political, geographical, revenue and/or administrative points of view. The village has always maintained its own identity by dint of its characteristic features, tradition and separate entity. In other words, below the artificial ward there is a traditional local institution. We make all politics adding and cutting to constitute a ward for election purpose. We should forego the so-called concept of ward and opt for village representative/
One village one member
As regards the size of Union Parishad, it may vary with the number of villages for true community participation. One village one member instead of one ward one member can be the cardinal principle of composition of local government at the union level. A third of the villages in a union can be represented by women to ensure women's participation in higher numbers. This should, however, not pose any bar to competent women candidates contesting in other constituencies with their male counterparts. Also, if the number of villages in a union is 22, the share could be 7 + 1 = 8 for women and 7 + 2 = 9 if the number of villages is 23.
The local government policy advocacy body has recommended that the number of wards in a union be increased from 9 to 12-15. Its implementation is likely to create intricacies in the shape of further bifurcation and reconstitution of wards and may not be possible in a short time to the satisfaction of all segments of the people. Besides, as said before, increasing the number of wards will not ensure representation of all the villages.
On the contrary, the one village one member concept will certainly increase the number of people's representatives, albeit with some cost on the government's part. However, the cost will be compensated by multiple benefits such as better assessment of union tax, better collection, good village development planning, establishment of better linkage between the service providers and recipients which in a way will lead to better governance at the micro level. In the present ward concept, more than 25 per cent of the villages are deprived of their village representatives. All the services mentioned above are very likely not to be accomplished neutrally and timely by a non-villager representative who is very likely to be biased to his own villagers.
At present there is only the provision for a chairman of union parishad. There should be a provision for vice-chairperson. The chairman of union parishad will be elected by direct votes from all the villages in a union. If the elected chairperson is a man, the vice-chairperson may be elected from women members by all the members of the parishad and vice versa.
Good governances at micro level
In addition to union perished, there should be a union development committee comprising all union parishad members and all union-level field workers and representatives of non-governmental organisations. This committee, headed by the chairperson, should be constituted by a gazette notification by the Cabinet Division. All members of the committee will meet once a month where all service providers will report their achievement during the month and inform their plan of action for the next month. They will also inform about deliverables available at their disposal. There should also be a village development association comprising all eligible voters/head of household of the village. The association will be led by the UP member and meet once a month at a particular place and time decided by the villagers. It will facilitate two-way communications between the service providers and the recipients and thus ensure efficient and effective service delivery.
We have a very strong central government, which may be likened with an ocean, and local governments, which may be likened with ponds. For the welfare of the local people, we need to reconstruct and renovate the derelict ponds first because the common people have better access to ponds rather than the ocean. Fourteen ministries, thirty-five agencies and thousands of NGOs are engaged in rural development and poverty alleviation in Bangladesh. Union-level employees working in different line ministries are about 263 and including schoolteachers, they are about 800. In the upazila, activities of different agencies are coordinated by the UNO and at the district level by the deputy commissioner. But at the ground level where different ministries, agencies and NGOs are working there is no one, either from the central government or the local government, to coordinate their activities. The service providers, both government and non-government, are not accountable to the service recipients. Union parishad, accountable to the people, has neither the adequate financial resources nor human resources at their disposal to perform the responsibilities entrusted upon them by the government.
We always complain that local government cannot function well without adequate manpower. It is true. But do we have the resources to equip local government with additional manpower? We do not. As we are now looking desperately for alternative renewable energy, similarly we can think of placing the central government staff to work under the leadership of local government at all level as an alternative.
Thana training and development centres have provided one-stop services. Likewise, the union parishad complex concept is moving ahead, albeit slowly and not so objectively. It is a proven better concept and mechanism for effective and efficient delivery of public services. Half of the unions, perhaps well-off, are blessed with UPC offices all over the country. As union is envisaged as the focal point of development, all remaining unions should be covered under this programme without any delay. It does not require construction of a brick built complex everywhere. The concept of UPC can be combined with flood shelter/cyclone shelter and community centre/schools, etc.
Reviving upazila parishad
There has not been any people's body at the upazila level after the departure of the Ershad regime. Union parishad chairpersons within the upazila and line ministry upazila officials are the members of the upazila development coordination committees which are steered by the UNO, although monthly meetings are chaired by the union parishad chairpersons by rotation. In the present system union parishad chairmen are in the front seat but the steering wheel is in the hand of the UNO, a government servant. UP chairperson are used to addressing the UNO 'sir' or 'UNO shaheb'; it should be the other way round.
The average number of unions per upazila is about 9. The size of the upazila parishad may be 12-20. The upazila parishad will be the representative body of all the union parishad chairmen within the upazila. In addition, equivalent to one-third of elected chairperson will be selected from among the women members of the union parishad within the upazila as the member of the upazila parishad for better representation of women. They will be selected by the women members of the union. If the number is not divisible, the benefit of odd number will go in favour of women as mentioned earlier. The chairperson will be selected by direct votes. The provision of vice-chairperson should be inducted who will be elected from among the members of the upazila parishad by the elected members. If the chairperson is male the vice-chairperson will be female and vice versa. The UNO will act as secretary to the upazila chairperson. All upazila-level staff will be accountable to the parishad.
Birth of Zila Parishad
In order to avoid interferences and interventions of members of parliament at the lower levels, people's representatives are also essential at the district level. Under the existing structure of local government, as we do not have people's representative at upazila and zila, members of parliament get free ground to pursue their political agenda and serve political purposes through party cadre. People at large and people in opposition particularly are either underserved or not at all considered for public services. Districts are still the planning, allocating and sanctioning focal points of government services. Deprivation starts from top.
The average number of upazila per district is 7-plus. The zila parishad should be the representative body of all the upazila parishad consisting of 15-25 members with one governor and one deputy governor. All the upazila chairpersons should be ex-officio-members of zila parishad. Instead of direct votes all the union parishad members and chairpersons, and upazila parishad chairpersons will elect the zila governor, deputy governor. If the governor is a man the deputy governor will be a woman and vice versa. One member will have one vote. For example union parishad chairperson also being a member of upazila parishad will have one vote. The deputy commissioner may be renamed as district coordinator who will work as secretary to the district governor. All district-level staff will be accountable to zila parishad.
Local government polls before
national elections
The government is now in a dilemma whether to hold national elections first or to start with local government elections. No positive change in the local government system will come into force unless it is non-party political in nature and action. How can we expect neutral services from a party political person who is elected by his party people? He is likely to serve first the people who voted for him and may be some others who are deemed to be neutral, but one segment that opposed him will always be sidelined. In our context, majority of the elected chairpersons/
The role of members of parliament should not go beyond activities which are legislative in nature. They must be away from sanctions and distribution of public goods at all levels. This has to be accomplished by representatives of local government. At best they can monitor when they will be on site and can advice and suggest for better delivery of services.
Local government is shadowed by the central government and the former is always used as extended hands of the central government. The local government minister in the country was always the secretary general or equivalent of the party in power. He along with his party affiliated disciples and cadres manipulated the local bodies' election although local government tends to be non-party political by nature. In ground realities local bodies are now the real focus of the political parities mainly because the local government minister steers the ruling party. After the Ershad regime only to retain and maintain political intervention and influence the local bodies both the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the Awami League did not continue and re-introduce the upazila system with people's representative as the head of the upazila. None of the governments thought about people's representatives at district level. If we really want a non-party political local government, there are no other options but to hold local government election first. Let us start with union parishad, municipalities and city corporations followed by upazila and zila parishads. The position of the local government chairperson and the member of parliament is like captain and coach. Both are important. But captain is more important than the coach.
If there is a will, there is a way. The separation of the judiciary from the executive bench is also embodied in the constitution under Article 22 but it took three decades after our independence for its implementation. What could not be done in 36 years was executed in a few months after assumption of power by the army-backed caretaker government. Likewise, the Anti-Corruption Commission, Election Commission and Public Service Commission have been reconstituted. A better local government of non-party political nature with full representation from the whole community is possible. It would be idealistic to expect a non-party political local government from a political government.
Majibar Rahman, PhD is with the Centre on Integrated Rural Development for Asia and Pacific
Soaring food price
Soaring food prices are a 'Silent Tsunami' around the globe, Bangladesh being not an exception. The rising cost of oil and fertiliser and changing food consumption patterns have all contributed to the current crisis. The donors are silent and the government actions are not yet in proper place for meeting the silent Tsunami of hunger.
Gopal Sengupta
Canada
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