The Sleeping Dragon Wakes in Gold Fest
Troubled Galaxy Destroyed Dreams: Chapter 40
Palash Biswas
http://troubledgala
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I came to know the term `Olympic' while I was reading in class three.
Our Hindi Reader included a chapter dealing with the first Marathon
Race in Athens. We knew the Greek world with Iliad and Odyssey in
teenage. Only in our Post Graduation days we studied the Greek Drama
and Greek Tragedy. Meanwhile we
already knew the political philosophies of Greece. Our Study circle
included `Spartacus'! Julius Caesar haunted us in our youth as well
as Cleopatra!
I was too little during the Indo Sino War in 1962. As we grew, the
Nation faced another war in 1965 and then in 1971, another! The
victories against our neighbour Pakistan and the Arm race and then
the Nuclear race wiped out the memories of the Himalayan Blunder!
I was very little when Pdt. Jawahar Lal Nehru died on 27th May, 1964.
I was surprised very much as the school was closed in mourning. I
knew, I do not know how, Pdt Nehru as a Pilot. We had an Aerodrome in
Pant Nagar University and used to see the planes flying over our head
often. I was rather worried how the planes would fly without the
Pilot.
We were accustomed to sing all the National songs. We were habitual
to celebrate Independence day and Republic day! But I personally came
to know the nation and its Nationality only after the death of our
first prime minister. It is also very amusing that I knew Abraham
Lincoln long before I came to know Nehru.
Nehru never inspired me!
Growing up in a Refugee colony Area consisting of Bengali as well as
Sikh refugees it was very hard to digest either Nehru or Gandhi. our
Indigenous People were dead against Nehru and Gandhi! I was shocked
to know that John Kennedy was assassinated. I was attracted by the
beautiful lady Jacqueline Kennedy in my childhood. I somehow got an
issue of`Span' focused on the death of Kennedy!
Later, thanks to dainik Basumati which continued to land in our home
by post after we discontinued Swadhinata, in my primary school days I
was quite update in affairs of Vietnam War. The Democracy in United
States of America was fascinating as it threw out President Johnson
and impeached President Nixon!
We knew so little about Nehru and Gandhi in those days! The Bengali
as well as Sikh and Punjabi refugees resettled in colonies of Terai
in Nainital were homesick and were quite hostile against the National
Leaders of Freedom.
I read so much of Gurudutt, a Punjabi Aryasamaji RSS minded Novelist
until late sixties that I almost hated those national heroes!
Then, Rajendra Pal Sandhu was fielded as a Jansangh candidate in
Kashipur Assembly seat in 1967 general elections. Sandhu was the
younger brother of Shaheed-E- Azam Sardar Bhagat Singh.The mother of
the martyr visited our home and I was spell bound as I knew so much
about the revolutionaries in Pre independence India thanks to freedom
fighters Ramjee Roy and Basanta Kumar Bannerjee!
Manmath Nath Gupta also visited our home. I was influenced by Atal
Bihari Vajpayee and Veer Savarkar also until 1968.
Then I came to know all about Tebhaga, Food Movement and Naxalbari
movement!
I realised that Sardar Bhagat Singh was the original Communist!
1962 hardly remained in our National Memory as we got an Empowered
India led by Lal Bahadur Shastri followed by Mrs Indira Gandhi. My
uncles were admirers of Krishan Menon why I never knew and neither
they could convince me.
I was born in Free India. I was a child growing in an underprivileged
dalit Bengali Refugee family. But I had no inferiority complex at any
level and I have to accept despite my opposition to Brahminical
Hegemony that I was supported most by the Kumayooni Brahmins who
never discriminated me at any level and rather promoted me every
time!
It began with Pitambar Pant in Primary School.
I was guided by Prem Praksh Budhlakoti in Junior High school days
who broke my illusion with Hindutva, RSS and USA!
Ms Veena Pant, our Biology teacher in the High school was very
beautiful young lady belonging to Almora. I felt the first stings of
Teen Age Fantasy and Calf Love with the first sight of my first lady
teacher after the affection I got from madam Christie in my
childhood. Ms Veena Pandey was very affectionate to me. She inspired
me at very level. One day she crossed my village with another lady
teacher. I was getting bath on the Tube Well in our field and was in
my under wears.
I spotted her from far away and I ran after her like a mad in
underwear! I tried to convince her to visit our home and followed her
miles. she promised to visit my home some time later.
When I passed my High School Exams. She met me on the Rudrapur Bus
stop while I was waiting a bus to Nainital.
I was going to get admission in GIC. She saw my Marks sheet and asked
when she could visit my home! It was the last meeting. She left the
job. And I could not get her back in her home town in Almora also.
In GIC, Jagadish Chandra Pant, our English teacher and Tara Chandra
Tripathi changed my life altogether.
Our Pahar, Yugmanch and Nainital Samchar teams were consisted of
Brahmins mostly.
Shekhar Pathak and Uma Bhatt were our professors and they always
treated me as equal.
When I left Nainital and landed in Allahabad, I got shelter in
another Brahmin Family while there was no space in Shailesh
Matiyani`s home. Shekhar Joshi was working in a Naini factory. He had
a rental home in Lookerganj and he accommodated me in the family. His
wife has been IZA, the mother for us all. The children Pratul, Sanju
and Bunty are like my real brothers and sister!
So the concept of Class struggle convinced me very well!
Not the 1962 War, we were more concerned with Mao!
We were the children of the Thundering Spring! Then, I read `The
Himalayan Blunder`! I read also the story of Kaul! We despised PC
Joshi and Dange!
1964 was the turning point for us, not 1962!We also studied the
documents by Charu Majumdar.
I read the RED Book in 1971.
China had been always the source of our inspiration.
We had a soft corner for CPIM as it discarded the revisionist Soviet
Russia and supported China in 1962. In 1980, when I landed in JNU for
my M Phil, I was demonstrating with Anand Swaroop Verma against
Soviet military Interference in China.
Since then, We were against the Soviet Imperiaqlism as well as US
Imperialism!
But I knew China long before the Thundering Spring. It was not the
war of 1962, of course! Thanks to Chhoto Kaka, I got a copy of `Good
Earth' by Pearl Buck. Wang was my hero!
Plot Summary of Good Earth
http://www.bookrags
The novel begins on the day of Wang Lung's marriage. The woman he
will be getting as his wife has been a slave since being a young girl
at the great House of Hwang. Wang Lung, a humble, poor peasant
farmer, goes to the great house to get his woman. O-lan is plain
looking, dull, and slow, but she is hard working, thrifty, and
resourceful. One day, she tells Wang Lung that she is with child, and
later gives birth to a boy by herself. Winter comes, and Wang Lung is
ready because of the good harvest he has had. There is a surplus of
silver that he hides in a hole in his bedroom.
The New Year comes, and on the second day, O-lan visits the House of
Hwang with the first born baby. The great house is not as prosperous
as it has been before, and Wang Lung decides to buy some of their
land with the extra silver he has hidden in his hole. Spring comes,
and O-lan is again with child, giving birth to another boy. Again,
Wang Lung's harvests are good, and he hides more silver in the hole.
Wang Lung's own status in the village grows as a result of his
prosperity.
One day, Wang Lung's uncle, a lazy old man, comes to ask for money
for his daughter's wedding dowry. On the same day, O-lan gives birth
to a third child-this time, a girl. Wang Lung is hit with a sense of
evil. All during the summer, rain does not come, and the fields dry
up. A period of famine follows. Soon, O-lan is big with yet another
child, but the famine continues. Wang Lung, unable to bear it
anymore, suddenly decides that he and his family will go south. O-lan
gives birth, but the baby is dead when Wang Lung comes to look at it.
Later, as he is wrapping the body to bury it, he notices bruise marks
around its neck.
The next day, Wang Lung's uncle comes to make him sell his land, but
he does not sell it, determined to return. Wang Lung and his family
walk through the town, and get on a train that takes them to a
southern city. At the city, they build a hut along the wall of a big
house. O-lan and the children beg for money, and Wang Lung works as a
ricksha puller. Wang Lung constantly longs for his land. One day, the
gates of the wealthy family's house are opened to the poor, and the
commoners swarm in to loot the property. Wang Lung, swept into the
innermost court of the house, discovers a frightened rich man from
whom he demands money. With the gold he received from the man, Wang
Lung is finally able to return home.
When Wang Lung gets home, he finds the house in a bad condition, but
he and his family work to make repairs. O-lan is again with child,
and the family has enough to eat before the next harvest. One night,
Wang Lung finds a pouch of jewels between O-lan's breasts. She tells
him that she found them in the wealthy man's house. Taking the jewels
from O-lan, except for the two pearls she wishes to keep for herself,
Wang Lung buys more land from the House of Hwang.
Ching comes to live with Wang Lung as his steward. O-lan gives birth
again-this time, to two children, a boy and a girl. Wang Lung's
eldest daughter, on the other hand, does not act her age, never
saying anything. The two eldest sons are sent to school to be
educated.
On the seventh year, there is a flood, and the fields are filled with
water. Wang Lung becomes idle, not having anything to do on his land.
He goes to a great teahouse to pass time, and is tempted to visit a
beautiful girl named Lotus with whom he becomes enchanted.
Wang Lung's uncle, whom he has not seen for long, comes back with his
family. The uncle's wife realizes that Wang Lung is sick with love
for another woman, and offers to arrange the union between himself
and Lotus. On a hot summer day, Lotus comes to his house with her
serving woman, Cuckoo.
Realizing that his eldest son is now a grown boy, Wang Lung decides
that the time has come for the son to be married. After learning that
his son visits a whore, Wang Lung goes to the prostitute, paying her
not to see his son anymore. When he angrily complains to his uncle
that the uncle's son has led the eldest son into corruption, the old
man threateningly shows Wang Lung that he is a member of a fearful
bandit group, and Wang Lung cannot do anything to drive his uncle
out.
Liu, a grain merchant, agrees to the union between his daughter and
the son of Wang Lung, but is not willing to do anything for now
except sign papers. One day, a small cloud hangs over the sky, and
locusts fall over the land. Forgetting everything, Wang Lung and his
workers try to save the fields from the locusts. As a result of hard
work, the best of the lands are spared.
One day, Wang Lung's eldest son comes to tell him that he wishes to
go south for more learning. After catching his son with Lotus, Wang
Lung beats the boy savagely, and decides to send the lustful,
wandering adolescent south. Wang Lung takes the second son out of
school and makes him an apprentice under Liu. While arranging the
apprenticeship of the second son, Wang Lung also discusses marrying
his second daughter to the son of Liu.
Wang Lung notices that O-lan is constantly in pain. The doctor comes
to the house, and tells him that O-lan is very sick and will die.
When the New Year approaches, however, O-lan regains enough strength
to train her daughter-in-
that she wishes to see her son married before she dies. The eldest
son is called from the city, and the ceremony is held. At the end of
the day, O-lan dies, and not long after, Wang Lung's old father also
dies.
After the wedding and the funeral, there is a flood and a famine
follows. Wang Lung's uncle and his wife become increasingly
demanding, knowing that they provide protection for Wang Lung's
house. To guard his daughter from the uncle's son, Wang Lung decides
to send her to the home of her betrothed. Wang Lung buys opium for
his uncle and his wife to make them helpless and quiet. The waters
wane in the fields, and winter lapses away into summer. Wang Lung
buys land and daughters from the people who have returned from the
south. He learns that his eldest daughter-in-
One day, his eldest son suggests that the family move to the vacant
great house in town. Wang Lung agrees, liking the idea of living in a
house where a great family used to live. Leaving the uncle and his
wife, Wang Lung's family moves to the house in town. Ching goes
looking for a suitable maiden for the second son, and finds a girl
three villages away. Soon, the second son's wedding day is set.
Fortunately for Wang Lung, the uncle's son goes off to a war in the
north, and soon after, his first grandson is born. Wang Lung spends
more time in his town house, rarely going out to his land and
gradually renting out parcels of his land to tenants. After Ching
dies of old age, Wang Lung does less and less of going to see his
lands, eventually renting all of them out and permanently moving into
the house in town.
Soon, all of the courts in the great house are rented for Wang Lung's
family and the commoners in the outer courts are driven out. Because
the third son does not wish to remain on the land as a farmer, Wang
Lung reluctantly engages a tutor for the boy. The wife of the eldest
son continuously and faithfully bears children, and the second son's
wife also gives birth. One day, Wang Lung's uncle is found dead. Wang
Lung moves the uncle's wife to the house in town.
One day, the son of Wang Lung's late uncle, who has become a soldier,
comes to stay at Wang Lung's house with other soldiers. Although the
fierce soldiers ravage the house, there is nothing that can be done.
Luckily, however, the uncle's son soon leaves when the army moves out
of the city.
Wang Lung begins to feel a secret yearning for one of the slaves who
is a pale, delicate girl. Pear Blossom reciprocates this love by
saying that she likes old men. The third son, who initially expressed
an interest in Pear Blossom, leaves home to become a soldier. Wang
Lung loves Pear Blossom, but his love for her gradually turns into
the love of a father for his daughter. Pear Blossom patiently serves
Wang Lung who is now a very old man. Wang Lung leads a quiet,
isolated life in his court, seldom visiting Lotus and hearing about
his family from Cuckoo. Although many things have changed, his love
for the land is constant. As the time nears for him to die, Wang Lung
decides to move back to his house on the land with Pear Blossom,
his "poor fool," and some servants. One day, he follows his two sons
out to the land. When he hears them making plans to sell the land,
Wang Lung becomes hysterical, crying that the selling of the land
will be the end of the family. Although the sons assure their father
that they will not sell the land, they look over his head and
secretly smile at one another.
China's Economic Conditions
http://www.fas.
Updated July 15, 1998
Wayne M. Morrison
Economics Division, CRS
Since the initiation of economic reforms, beginning in 1978, China
has become one of the world's fastest growing economies. Over the
past 10 years, China's GDP has grown at an average annual rate of
nearly 10%. Some economists have speculated that China could become
the world's largest economy at some point in the near future.
However, future economic growth will likely depend on the ability of
the Chinese government to make significant new reforms. Chinese
officials have recently announced major new initiatives to reform
money-losing state-owned enterprises and China's banking system. It
remains to be seen whether such reforms will be implemented on a
wholesale or piecemeal level.
China's emergence as a global economic and trade power has created
economic opportunities for China's trading partners, but has
presented several challenges as well. On the one hand, China's
economic growth has made it an increasingly important trading partner
for many nations. On the other hand, China's trade barriers, failure
to adopt most multilateral rules on international trade, and the
relative absence of the rule of law for business activities have
often proved to be major barriers for doing business in China and
have been the cause of growing tensions with various trading
partners, especially the United States.
Currently, China is the largest economic power that is not a member
of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the international body that
sets rules for most international trade. China has sought WTO
membership, but has consistently argued that it should be given
fairly lenient terms for joining the WTO. The United States and
certain other WTO members contend that China is a large economic and
trading power and, hence, must make major reforms to its trade regime
before joining the WTO. Chinese officials contend that China is a
developing country and should be allowed to enter the WTO under
conditions which would allow it to adopt reforms over time. They
contend that U.S. demands for trade liberalization are too severe
because they would cause widespread bankruptcies of many state-owned
firms, leading to widespread layoffs and social unrest.
The current economic and financial crisis in Asia has begun to affect
the Chinese economy. Chinese officials have raised concerns that the
devaluation of several Asian currencies (including the Japanese yen)
is making many Chinese exports less competitive in international
markets. U.S. officials have urged China not to devalue its currency
out of concern that it could lead to a new round of currency
devaluations in Asia and further deepen the financial crisis there.
The Asian financial crisis could affect the pace and extent of future
Chinese economic reforms.
The growth of China's economy and the pace of reforms have been of
great concern to Congress. Some Members view the sluggish growth in
U.S. exports (and the rising U.S-China trade imbalance) in recent
years as an indicator that Chinese markets are relatively closed to
most U.S. goods and services; they argue that the United States
should support China's membership in the WTO only if it agrees to
significantly open up its markets to U.S. goods and services.
Congressional support, or lack thereof, for China's WTO membership
will likely determine whether it will eventually vote to extend
permanent most-favored-
MOST RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
On June 25, 1998, President Clinton began his summit visit to China.
On June 3, 1998, President Clinton recommended the renewal of China's
MFN status for an additional year.
On April 23, 1998, following discussions with Chinese officials in
Beijing, USTR Charlene Barshefsky announced that U.S.-China talks on
China's accession to the WTO were "back on track."
On March 10, 1998, Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji outlined several new
major initiatives and goals for China's economy, including
eliminating several government ministries, restructuring state-owned
enterprises, and reforming the banking system. On February 1, 1998,
Chinese Vice Premier Li Lanqing stated that China would not devalue
its currency (in response to devaluation of currencies that have
occurred in other Asian countries) to boost exports. He further
stated that China's economy would grow by 8.0% in 1998, and announced
that China would spend $750 billion over 3 years on infrastructure
development.
BACKGROUND AND ANALYSIS
An Overview of China's Economic Development
China's Economy Prior to Reforms
Prior to 1978, China maintained a centrally planned, or command,
economy. A large share of the country's economic output was directed
and controlled by the state, which set production goals, controlled
prices, and allocated resources throughout most of the economy.
During the 1950s, all of China's individual household farms were
collectivized into large communes. To support rapid
industrialization, the central government during the 1960s and 1970s
undertook large-scale investments in physical and human capital. As a
result, by 1978 nearly three-fourths of industrial production was
produced by centrally controlled state-owned enterprises (SOEs)
according to centrally planned output targets. Private enterprises
and foreign invested firms were nearly non-existent. A central goal
of the Chinese government was to make China's economy relatively self-
sufficient. Foreign trade was generally limited to obtaining only
those goods that could not be made or obtained in China.
China's real GDP grew at an estimated average annual rate of about
5.3% from 1960-1978. However, government policies kept the Chinese
economy relatively stagnant and inefficient, mainly because there
were few profit incentives for firms and farmers, competition was
virtually nonexistent, and price and production controls caused
widespread distortions in the economy. Chinese living standards were
substantially lower than those of many other developing countries.
The Chinese government hoped that gradual reform would significantly
raise economic growth and living standards.
The Introduction of Economic Reforms
Beginning in 1978, China launched several economic reforms. The
central government initiated price and ownership incentives for
farmers, which enabled them to sell a portion of their crops on the
free market. In addition, the government established four special
economic zones for the purpose of attracting foreign investment,
boosting exports, and importing high technology products into China.
Additional reforms followed in stages that sought to decentralize
economic policymaking in several economic sectors, especially trade.
Economic control of various enterprises was given to provincial and
local governments, which were generally allowed to operate and
compete on free market principles, rather than under the direction
and guidance of state planning. Additional coastal regions and cities
were designated as open cities and development zones, which allowed
them to experiment with free market reforms and to offer tax and
trade incentives to attract foreign investment. In addition, state
price controls on a wide range of products were gradually eliminated.
China's Economic Growth Since Reforms: 1979-1997
Since the introduction of economic reforms in 1978, China's economy
has grown substantially faster than during the pre-reform period (see
Table 1). Chinese statistics show real GDP from 1979 to 1997 growing
at an average annual rate of 9.9%; over the past 5 years, it grew by
11%, making China one the world's fastest growing economies. In real
terms, China's 1978 GDP doubled by 1986, tripled by 1991, quadruped
by 1993, and quintupled by 1995. According to the World Bank, China's
rapid development has raised nearly 200 million people out of extreme
poverty.
Causes of China's Economic Growth
Economists generally attribute much of China's rapid economic growth
to two main factors: large-scale capital investment (financed by
large domestic savings and foreign investment) and rapid productivity
growth. These two factors appear to have gone together hand in hand.
Economic reforms led to higher efficiency in the economy, which
boosted output and increased resources for additional investment in
the economy.
China has historically maintained a high rate of savings. When
reforms were begun in 1978, domestic savings as a percentage of GDP
stood at 32% (nearly as high as Japan's at the time). However, most
Chinese savings during this period were generated by the profits of
SOEs, which were used by the central government for domestic
investment. Economic reforms, which included the decentralization of
economic production, led to substantial growth in Chinese household
savings (which now account for half of Chinese domestic savings). As
a result, savings as a percentage of GDP has steadily risen; it was
42% in 1996, among the highest savings rates in the world.
China's trade and investment reforms and incentives led to a surge in
foreign direct investment (FDI), which has been a major source of
China's capital growth. Annual utilized FDI in China grew from $636
million in 1983 to $45.3 billion in 1997, making China, in recent
years, the second largest destination of FDI (after the United
States). Total utilized FDI at the end of 1997 reached $223.1
billion. About two-thirds of FDI in China has come from Hong Kong and
Taiwan. The United States is the fourth largest investor in China,
accounting for 7.8% ($17.3 billion) of total FDI at the end of 1997.
Several economists have concluded that productivity gains (i.e.,
increases in efficiency in which inputs are used) were another major
factor in China's rapid economic growth. The improvements to
productivity were largely caused by a reallocation of resources to
more productive uses, especially in sectors that were formally
heavily controlled by the central government, such as agriculture,
trade, and services. For example, agricultural reforms boosted
production, thus freeing workers to pursue employment in more
productive activities in the manufacturing sector. China's
decentralization of the economy led to the rise of non-state
enterprises, which tended to pursue more productive activities than
the centrally controlled SOEs. Additionally, a greater share of the
economy (mainly the export sector) was exposed to competitive forces.
Local and provincial governments were allowed to establish and
operate various enterprises on market principles, without
interference from the central government. In addition, FDI in China
brought with it new technology and processes that boosted efficiency.
Measuring the Size of China's Economy
The actual size of the China's economy has been a subject of
extensive debate among economists. Measured in U.S. dollars using
nominal exchange rates, China's GDP in 1997 was $957 billion; its per
capita GDP (a commonly used figure to measure and compare a nation's
living standard) was $769. Such data would indicate that China's
economy and living standards were significantly lower than those of
the United States, Japan, and Germany. In nominal U.S. dollars,
China's 1997 GDP was about 45% the size of Germany's, 23% that of
Japan's, and 12% that of the United States. China's nominal per
capita GDP was only 2.6% that of the United States (see Table 2).
Many economists, however, contend that using nominal exchange rates
to convert Chinese data into U.S. dollars substantially
underestimates the size of China's economy. This is because prices in
China for many goods and services are significantly lower than those
in the United States and other developed countries. Economists have
attempted to factor in these price differentials by using a
purchasing power parity (PPP) measurement, which attempts to convert
foreign currencies into U.S. dollars based on the actual purchasing
power of such currency (based on surveys of the prices of various
goods and services) in each respective country. This PPP exchange
rate is then used to convert foreign economic data in national
currencies into U.S. dollars.
Because prices for many goods and services are significantly lower in
China than in the United States and other developed countries (while
prices in Germany and Japan are higher than those in the United
States), the PPP exchange rate raises the estimated size of Chinese
economy to $4.4 trillion, higher than Japan's GDP in PPP ($3.0
trillion) and Germany's ($1.6 trillion), and slightly over half the
size of the U.S. economy. PPP data also raise China's per capita GDP
to $3,560; however, this figure falls far below the PPP per capita
GDP levels of the major developed countries (for example, its only
12% of U.S. levels).
The PPP data appear to indicate that, while the size of China's
economy as a whole is quite large and currently could be the world's
second largest, its living standards are quite low. (To illustrate,
the World Bank estimates that nearly 30% of China's population live
below the international poverty level of $1 per day.) The
International Monetary Fund estimates that (using PPP measurements)
China could surpass the United States as the world's largest economy
as early as the year 2007. Yet, even if that were to occur, it would
take China significantly longer to achieve U.S. standard of living
levels.
Table 2. Comparisons of U.S., Japanese, German, and Chinese GDP and
Per Capita GDP In Nominal U.S. Dollars and PPP: 1997
Country
Nominal GDP ($Billions)
GDP in PPP ($Billions)
Nominal Per Capita GDP
Per Capita GDP in PPP
U.S.
8,081
8,081
30,136
30,136
Japan
4,190
2,969
33,214
23,543
Germany
2,109
1,637
25,692
20,890
China
957
4,429
769
3,560
Source: DRI/McGraw Hill. World Economic Outlook, Volume 2, 1st
Quarter, 1998, various pages.
Note: PPP data for China should be interpreted with caution. China is
not a fully developed market economy; the prices of many goods and
services are distorted due to price controls and government
subsidies.
China's Trade Patterns
Economic reforms have transferred China into a major trading power.
Chinese exports rose from $14 billion in 1979 to an estimated $183
billion in 1997, while imports grew from $16 billion to $142 billion.
China's ranking as a trading power rose from 27th in 1979 to 10th in
1996. Historically, China has run trade deficits in some years and
surpluses in others. Over the past 4 years, China has run trade
surpluses; in 1997 that surplus reached an estimated $40 billion (see
Table 3). Merchandise trade surpluses and large-scale foreign
investment have enabled China to accumulate the world's second
largest foreign exchange reserves, estimated to have reached nearly
$140 billion at the end of 1997.
China's Major Trading Partners
China's trade data often differ significantly from those of its major
trading partners. This is due to the fact that a large share of
China's trade (both exports and imports) passes through Hong Kong
(which reverted back to Chinese rule in July 1997, but is treated as
a separate customs area by most countries, including China and the
United States). China treats a large share of its exports through
Hong Kong as Chinese exports to Hong Kong for statistical purposes,
while many countries that import Chinese products through Hong Kong
generally attribute their origin to China for statistical purposes.
According to Chinese trade data, its top five trading partners in
1997 were Japan, Hong Kong, the United States, the European Union
(EU), and South Korea (see Table 4). Chinese data show the United
States as China's second largest destination for its exports and the
fourth largest source of its imports (after Taiwan).
Significant differences in how trade flows are calculated between
China and its major trading partners; this has resulted in
substantially different measurements of bilateral trade balances. For
example, U.S. trade data for 1997 indicate that it had a $49.7
billion trade deficit with the United States, but Chinese trade data
indicate that it had $16.4 billion trade surplus with the United
States.
Major Chinese Trade Commodities
China's abundance of cheap labor has made it internationally
competitive in many low cost, labor-intensive, manufactures. As a
result, manufactured products (as opposed to primary products, such
as food and live animals, raw material, and mineral fuels) comprise
an increasingly larger share of China's trade. The share of Chinese
manufactured exports to total exports rose from 50% in 1980 to 84% in
1994, while manufactured imports as a share of total imports rose
from 65% to 86%. A large share of China's manufactured imports are
comprised of intermediates (such as chemicals, electronic components,
and textile machinery) used in manufacturing products in China. Major
Chinese imports in 1997 included textile products, electric
machinery, mineral fuels, specialized machinery, and primary plastics
(see Table 5). China's major exports in 1996 included clothing,
textiles, electric machinery, telecommunications and recording
equipment, and office machines (see Table 6).
Major Challenges Facing the Chinese Economy
China's economy has shown remarkable economic growth over the past
several years, and many economists project that it will enjoy robust
growth in near future. Standards and Poor's DRI, a private
international forecasting firm, projects China's GDP will grow at an
average annual rate of 7.2% between 1998 and the year 2015; this
means that China will likely double its GDP every 10 years.
Economists caution, however, that these projections are likely to
occur only if China continues to make major reforms to its economy.
Failure to make such reforms could diminish the prospects for
continued rapid growth. China faces several challenges which could
threaten future growth:
State-owned enterprises (SOEs), which account for about one-third of
Chinese industrial production and employ nearly two-thirds of urban
workers, put an increasingly heavy strain on China's economy. Over
half are believed to lose money and must be supported by subsidies,
mainly through state banks. Government support of unprofitable SOEs
diverts resources away from potentially more efficient and profitable
enterprises. In addition, the poor financial state of many SOEs makes
it difficult for the government to reduce trade barriers out of fear
that doing so would lead to wide-spread bankruptcies of many SOEs.
The banking system faces several major difficulties due to its
financial support of SOEs and failure to operate solely on market-
based principles. China's banking system is regulated and controlled
by the central government, which sets interest rates and attempts to
allocate credit to certain Chinese firms. The central government has
used the banking system to keep afloat money-losing SOEs by
pressuring state banks to provide low interest loans, without which a
large share of the SOEs would likely go bankrupt. Currently, about
70% of state-owned bank loans now go to the SOEs, even though a large
share of loans are not likely to be repaid. The high volume of bad
loans now held by Chinese banks (estimated to total $250 billion)
poses a serious threat to China's banking system. Three out of the
four state commercial banks are believed to be insolvent. The
precarious financial state of the Chinese banking system has made
Chinese reformers reluctant to open its banking sector to foreign
competition. Corruption poses another problem for China's banking
system because loans are often made on the basis of political
connections. In many cases, bank branches extend loans to firms
controlled by local officials, even during periods when the central
government has attempted to limit credit, due to inflation concerns.
Such a system promotes widespread inefficiency in the economy because
savings are generally not allocated on the basis of obtaining the
highest possible returns. In addition, inability to control the
credit policies of local and provincial banks has made it very
difficult for the central government to use monetary policy to fight
inflation without causing major disruptions to the economy.
Infrastructure bottlenecks, such as inadequate transportation and
energy systems, pose serious challenges to China's ability to
maintain rapid economic growth. China's investment in infrastructure
development has failed to keep pace with its economic growth The
World Bank estimates that transportation bottlenecks reduce China's
GDP growth by 1% annually. Chronic power shortages are blamed for
holding China's industrial growth to 80% of its potential.
Transportation bottlenecks and energy shortages also add inflationary
strains to the economy because supply cannot keep up with demand.
The lack of the rule of law in China has led to widespread government
corruption, financial speculation, and mis-allocation of investment
funds. In many cases, government "connections,
are the main determinant of successful firms in China. Many U.S.
firms find it difficult to do business in China because rules and
regulations are generally not consistent or transparent, contracts
are not easily enforced, and intellectual property rights are not
protected (due to the lack of an independent judicial system). The
lack of rule of law in China limits competition and undermines the
efficient allocation of goods and services in the economy.
High Trade barriers are maintained by the government in large part to
protect domestic firms from foreign competition. Such policies have
two main negative effects: First, they give domestic firms less
incentive to improve productivity and efficiency. Second, restricting
competition raises prices and product choices for Chinese consumers
of both domestic and imported goods.
A wide variety of social problems have arisen from China's rapid
economic growth and extensive reforms, including pollution, a
widening of income disparities between the coastal and inner regions
of China, and a growing number of bankruptcies and worker layoffs.
This poses several challenges to the government, such as enacting
regulations to control pollution, focusing resources on
infrastructure development in the hinterland, and developing modern
fiscal and tax systems to address various social concerns (such as
poverty alleviation, health care, education, worker retraining,
pensions, and social security).
Recently Announced Chinese Economic Initiatives
Newly appointed Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji outlined a number of major
new economic initiatives and goals for reforming China's economy and
maintaining healthy economic growth during at a news conference on
March 19, 1998. Among these initiatives and goals were:
In 1998, achieve a GDP growth rate of 8%, keep inflation below 3%,
and not devalue China's currency.
Respond to the effects of the Asian financial crisis by expanding
domestic demand, especially through increased spending on
infrastructure, and by maintaining the pace of previously planned
economic reforms.
Reform and restructure loss-making medium-and-large-
enterprises (SOEs) to make them profitable. Reorganize the banking
system to increase the regulatory and supervisory power of the
central bank and make commercial banks operate independently.
Substantially reduce the size of the government and reorganize the
remaining government institutions. All three goals are to be obtained
within three years
Commercialize government housing, reform the health insurance system,
improve the system the for circulating grain, rationalize the system
for approving investment and finance projects (i.e., make such
decisions based on market considerations)
collection.
Zhu Rongji's economic plan builds on the Deng Xioping strategy which
sought to establish a rudimentary market system with a gradual but
extensive integrative program of reform. Zhu's reforms, if
implemented, could constitute the most significant restructuring of
the economy to date, since it would substantially reduce the size of
the government and diminish its control over various sectors of the
economy, dismantle much of the remaining "iron rice bowl" of cradle-
to grave benefits for government and SOE workers, enable banks to
make loans on a commercial, rather than political basis, and force a
large share of SOEs to operate according to free market principals.
These steps, if implemented, would take China significantly closer
towards a functioning market economy.
Reform of State Owned Enterprises
The Chinese leadership has been talking about undertaking major
reforms of unprofitable SOEs for the past several years, but has been
hesitant to act due to concerns that reforms would lead to widespread
bankruptcies and cause political instability. However, the Chinese
government has acknowledged that support of SOEs has put a heavy
drain on the economy and cannot be maintained indefinitely. As a
result, reform of SOEs has been made a top priority. In September
1997, Chinese President Jiang Zemin stated that China would take
steps which, if implemented, would essentially privatize (although
referred to by the Chinese as "public ownership") all but 1,000 out
of an estimated 308,000 SOEs by cutting off most government aid and
forcing them to compete on their own. Under this plan, some
unprofitable SOEs will be closed, while others will be merged with
more profitable enterprises. Many firms will be allowed to issue
stock in order to raise funds. Another source of revenue for SOEs
will come from workers who will be allowed to purchase their own
homes, and SOEs will be released from the responsibility of providing
subsidized housing. The central government plans to maintain support
and control of 1,000 large and medium-sized enterprises deemed as key
industries, but to reorganize and restructure them into large
conglomerates in the hope of making them more competitive.
It is not clear how the Chinese government intends to deal with the
problem of displaced workers (likely to total several millions) when
and if the SOE reform plan is implemented. Chinese officials may be
anticipating that continued rapid economic growth will provide new
jobs for most displaced workers. They also appear to be hoping that
overseas investors will play a major role in restructuring the SOEs
by becoming joint owners and financing and management assistance to
such firms, thus enhancing the efficiency of their operations.
Reform of the Banking System
Chinese officials have indicated a desire to strengthen and reform
its banking system. On January 16, 1998, the central government
announced it would attempt to implement new reforms to enhance the
power of the central bank over the provincial and state banks and to
improve the management systems of all Chinese banks. Such reforms
would attempt to lessen the power of local officials to pressure
banks into making "bad loans." In addition, the government has
indicated that banks will be allowed to make bank loan decisions
based on commercial, considerations. Finally, on March 2, 1998, the
government announced plans to issue bonds to recapitalize the state
banks to enable them to write off bad loans. Chinese officials claim
their long-term goal is to develop a modern banking system similar to
that of the U.S. Federal Reserve system. However, due the precarious
nature of its banking system, Chinese officials appear hesitant to
allow foreign banks to expand their operations in China, due to
concerns that doing so would force many Chinese banks into
bankruptcy.
Infrastructure Development
The Chinese government anticipates that banking and SOE reforms will
lead to widespread layoffs. Stimulating domestic demand, especially
through infrastructure development, is viewed as a key mechanism to
re-employ workers displaced by reforms. Chinese officials announced
in February 1998 their intentions to spend $750 billion on
infrastructure development over the next 3 years, although many
analysts have questioned China's ability obtain funding for such a
massive financial undertaking in such a short period of time. It is
likely that China intends to attract foreign investment for much of
its infrastructure needs. However, Chinese restrictions on ownership,
profits, and operational control of major projects, China's demands
for subsidized financing and sharing of technology, and uncertainties
over obtaining approval from Chinese officials at the central and
local levels have made foreign investors reluctant to invest in major
Chinese infrastructure projects.
Major Issues in China-U.S. Economic Relations
China's growth as a major economic and trading power has expanded
U.S.-China commercial ties, although disputes have arisen over a
number of issues, such as trade investment barriers and China's most-
favored-nation (MFN) status. The World Bank projects that by the year
2020, China will be the second largest trading economy after the
United States. China's continued rapid growth has increased concerns
among U.S. policymakers that China's trade regime must be brought in
compliance with multilateral rules in the World Trade Organization
(WTO) for U.S. exporters to gain adequate access to the Chinese
market.
Trade
Total trade between China and the United States rose from $4.8
billion in 1980 to $75.4 billion in 1997, making China the fourth
largest U.S. trading partner. China has become a major supplier to
the U.S. market of a variety of low-cost U.S. consumer goods, such as
toys and games, textiles and apparel, shoes, and consumer
electronics, while China has been a major buyer of U.S. aircraft,
fertilizers, and machinery. In recent years, U.S. imports from China
have far exceeded U.S. exports to China (in 1997, U.S. imports from
China totaled $62.6 billion while U.S. exports to China were $12.8
billion) As a result, the U.S. trade deficit with China has surged,
reaching nearly $50 billion in 1997. U.S. officials have raised
concern over the relatively flat level of U.S. exports to China over
the past few years (they grew by only 2.0% in 1996 over the previous
year and by 6.7% in 1997). U.S. officials have blamed China's
widespread and pervasive use of trade and investment barriers and
restrictions for the relatively lackluster growth of U.S. exports to
China (For a more detailed examination of major trade issues, see CRS
Issue Brief 91121, U.S.-China Trade Issues).
The United States is an important economic partner for China. One
calculation indicates that the United States is by far China's
largest export market and that its importance has grown sharply over
the past several years. Based on U.S. data on Chinese exports to the
United States (which, as noted above, do not agree with Chinese
data), and Chinese data on total Chinese exports, it is estimated
that Chinese exports to the United States as a percentage of total
Chinese exports grew from 15.3% in 1986 to 34.3% in 1997 (see table
7).
China's Most-Favored-
Under current U.S. law, China's MFN status must be renewed on an
annual basis. In recent years, several attempts have been made in
Congress to pass legislation to revoke, partially revoke, or add new
conditions to, the renewal of China's MFN status. None of these bills
have been enacted.
A withdrawal of China's MFN status would result in a substantial
increase in the applicable rates and amounts of customs duties
assessed on most U.S. imports from China. Imports from China would be
assessed tariffs according to "Column 2" (non-MFN) rates of duty in
the U.S. Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS), which are generally
significantly higher (up to 10-fold in some instances) than those
under "Column 1-General" (MFN treatment). These higher tariffs would
likely result in higher prices for U.S. consumers of the affected
items and subsequently a decrease in U.S. imports of various Chinese
products.
The precise economic effects of higher U.S. (non-MFN) tariffs on
various Chinese products are difficult to ascertain, due to the
problems involved in determining who would bear the ultimate costs of
the higher tariffs, and how such costs would affect the quantity of
Chinese-made products supplied and demanded in the United States. A
1996 study by the International and Business and Economic Research
Corporation (an organization that supports continued MFN treatment
for China), concluded that terminating China's MFN status would raise
the effective U.S. duty on Chinese imports from 5.9% to 44.1%,
resulting in roughly $27 billion to $29 billion in added costs to
U.S. consumers. Products hardest hit by increased tariff levels would
include textiles and apparel, toys, shoes, and machinery. China might
respond to a cutoff of its U.S. MFN status by imposing trade
sanctions against U.S. products and restricting U.S. investment in
China. In addition, Hong Kong, which accounts for about half of
China's trade and has established export-oriented production
facilities in China, would likely be deeply impacted by a U.S. cut-
off of China's MFN status. The Hong Kong government estimates that
such a cut-off would reduce its trade by up to $33.9 billion and
reduce income by $4.5 billion.
China's Accession to the WTO
China has made its accession to the WTO a major priority for a number
of reasons. First, it would represent international recognition of
China's growing economic power. Second, it would enable China to play
a major role the development of new international rules on trade in
the WTO. Third, it would give China access to the dispute resolution
process in the WTO, reducing the threat of unilateral trade sanctions
against China or other unilateral restrictions on Chinese exports
(such as textile quotas and antidumping duties). Fourth, it would
make it easier for reformers in China to push liberalization policies
if they could argue that such steps are necessary to fulfill China's
international obligations. Finally, China hopes it would gain it
permanent MFN treatment from the United States.
Several arguments have been made by policymakers of current WTO
member countries for allowing China into the WTO. First, China is the
largest economic and trade power not a member of the WTO. The World
Bank projects that China's share of world trade will account for 10%
of the world's trade by the year 2020 and that China will become the
world's second largest trading nation after the United States. Hence,
it is argued that China's trade is too significant to remain outside
multilateral trade rules. Second, WTO membership would require China
to reduce a wide variety of trade barriers and, hence, would likely
create substantial new trade opportunities in China. Third, once
China is in the WTO, it would be required to provide extensive
information about its trade regime, which would make it very
difficult for China to impose new trade and investment barriers.
Fourth, the United States (and other WTO members) would be able to
bring trade disputes to WTO dispute resolution instead of having to
rely on threats of unilateral trade sanctions. Finally, China's
accession might enable Taiwan to eventually join the WTO (as a
separate customs territory). China has insisted that Taiwan can get
into the WTO only after China does.
Several policymakers have opposed China's accession to the WTO due to
concerns that China's economic and trade regimes are currently
incompatible with WTO rules. They argue that China's WTO membership
could undermine the WTO as an institution (especially if China
entered under relatively easy terms) and could diminish the prospects
for future trade liberalization agreements under the WTO. Other
opponents argue that China's WTO membership should be opposed until
China improves its human rights practices.
Negotiations have been held over the past several years over the
terms of China's accession to the WTO. China has consistently claimed
that it is a poor country and should be given fairly lenient terms
for joining the WTO, which would enable China to gradually implement
reforms. The United States and several other WTO members have argued
that China is a major economic and trade power and must be made to
bring its trade regime into full compliance with WTO rules before
joining or be in compliance within a few years after joining. China
contends that implementing reforms too quickly would force several
Chinese firms into bankruptcy, leading to widespread layoffs and
social unrest. China has further argued that it should be allowed to
develop and protect industries deemed essential for China's future
economic development. The United States has countered that economic
and trade reforms, not protectionism, are the best measures to ensure
long-term Chinese economic growth and development.
Some progress has been made on China's WTO accession over the past
year. China has reduced its average tariff rate from 42.1% in 1996 to
17% as of October 1997. At the October 1997 U.S.-China summit, the
two sides agreed to "intensify" the WTO talks, and China pledged it
would participate in the Information Technology Agreement to
eliminate tariffs on information technology products. China and most
WTO members appear to have agreed that China needs to submit a
planned package of reforms that would be adopted before China's WTO
accession ("a down payment"), along with a detailed description of
tariff and non-tariff barriers that would be reduced or eliminated
within a specific period of time. Details for phasing such barriers
on specific products are still being worked out. No major
breakthrough on China's WTO bid was achieved at the June 1998 U.S.-
China summit.
The Financial Crisis in Asia
Since mid-1997, several East Asian economies, notably South Korea,
Thailand, and Indonesia, have experienced significant financial
difficulties. Such difficulties have included substantial currency
devaluations (as investors have transferred funds overseas), and
significant falls in stock market prices. Other Asian economies,
including Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, the Philippines, and Malaysia
have also experienced varying degrees of financial difficulties as
well. The financial crisis also seriously weakened (or exposed
weaknesses) in the financial institutions (such as banks) of several
Southeast Asian countries, raising concerns that a drop in investor
confidence could seriously undermine future economic growth in the
region.
China has been relatively immune from the effects of the Asian
financial crisis, mainly because its currency (the yuan) is not fully
convertible; it maintains over $140 billion in foreign exchange
reserves; its foreign debt is relatively small compared to other
Asian nations; its financial institutions are tightly controlled by
the central government; and because most foreign investment in China
is direct, rather than portfolio, investment.
The most significant response by the Chinese government to the Asian
financial crisis so far has been a number of recent public
declarations that it will not devalue the yuan. Several analysts have
argued that a Chinese currency devaluation could lead to several new
rounds of currency devaluation among Southeast Asian economies and
would likely significantly deepen the financial crisis. In addition,
several Chinese government officials have pledged not to let the
Asian financial crisis halt the pace of economic reforms. In recent
weeks, however, some Chinese officials have expressed concern over
the sharp depreciation of the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar
and have warned that China might be forced to devalue its currency if
the yen continued to slide. Such warnings may have contributed to the
U.S. and Japanese government intervention in the exchange markets on
June 17, 1998 to prop up the yen.
Outlook for China's Economy
Chinese officials predict that China's economy will continue to
expand at healthy levels in the near future; they predict real GDP to
grow by 8.0% in 1998. However, many analysts predict the Asian
financial crisis will slow China's economic growth in 1998. Chinese
data for the first quarter of 1998 indicate that the economy is
growing at an average annual rate of 7.2%. Standard & Poor's DRI, a
U.S. economic forecasting firm, projects that China's GDP will grow
by only 5.0% in 1998, a significant slowdown from growth experienced
over the last several years. Several analysts have warned that,
should the Asian financial crisis continue and worsen, and start to
seriously hurt China's export sectors (and thereby slowing overall
economic growth), the Chinese government may move to depreciate the
yuan. A slowing economy could also make it harder for the government
to open the economy to foreign competition, and to cut off financial
aid to unprofitable SOEs, because fewer jobs would likely be
available in other sectors of the economy for Chinese workers
displaced by resulting bankruptcies. In addition, many Chinese
officials appear to believe that it was the "openness" of the East
Asian economies that made them susceptible to the current financial
crisis in Asia; this may cause China's leaders to be more cautious in
implementing further economic reforms. Such a response could further
complicate China's accession to the WTO and would aggravate U.S.-
China commercial relations.
Olympics
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BEIJING 2008: THE SCENE Excitement and smog are in the air as ... San
Francisco Chronicle
World Magazine - Investor's Business Daily (subscription) - The
Times - Independent
all 1,625 news articles »
Times Online Kidd: US vs. China will be like 'Game 7 times 7'
Houston Chronicle - 50 minutes ago
By FRAN BLINEBURY Copyright 2008 Houston Chronicle Jason Kidd and his
US teammates say they're thrilled for the chance to play for their
country.
Big Yao doesn't feel worthy to light Olympic cauldron Deseret News
Not content just to watch, Chinese also love to play Seattle Times
NEWS.com.au - China Daily - South China Morning Post (subscription) -
United Press International
all 224 news articles »
BBC News Amputee to fly SA's Olympic flag
BBC News - 5 hours ago
Amputee swimmer Natalie Du Toit will carry the South African flag
during the opening ceremony of the Olympics. "Natalie was the obvious
choice for team South Africa," said Hajera Kajee, the head of the
team, in Beijing.
SA's Olympic medal hopefuls Mail & Guardian Online
Amputee swimmer du Toit to carry South Africa flag Reuters
SuperSport
all 34 news articles »
SBR Forum So, Is Team USA Muzzled, Or Not
ESPN - 30 minutes ago
Jerry Colangelo and Mike Krzyzewski have said things about how
marvelous the US is, in that we do not muzzle our players nor hinder
their freedom of speech.
WATERCOOLER CHAT: OLYMPIC FEVER, GIULIANI AND FEMALE FAN ON FOX ...
The Female Fan
Running down the Olympic field Most Valuable Network
The Ledger - Christian Broadcasting Network - Los Angeles Times -
Supersonicsoul
all 380 news articles »
Telegraph.co.
Telegraph.co.
The hopes of more than a billion people will be resting on the
delicate shoulders of China's Du Li in the first gold medal
competition of the Olympics on Saturday - the women's 10 metre air
rifle.
Enjoying and expecting, American shooters ready for Olympics Xinhua
American missed target, found love guardian.co.
all 20 news articles » हि
ABC News Olympics begin...Bush at ceremonies..
KXNet ...
Reiten Television KXMB Bismarck - 2 hours ago
AP BEIJING (AP) The 2008 Summer Olympic opening ceremonies are under
way in Beijing. Scores of world leaders have been joined by 91000
others at the National Stadium and as many as 4 billion people
watching worldwide.
Helping Athletes When Great Expectations Grate Washington Post
The human rights games guardian.co.
Arizona Republic - MiamiHerald.
all 798 news articles » हि
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