Monsoon to strike Kerala coast on May 29: IMD
ASHOK B SHARMA
Posted online: Wednesday, May 14, 2008 at 1908 hrs IST
Posted online: Wednesday, May 14, 2008 at 1908 hrs IST
New Delhi, May 14: The official weather forecasting agency, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that the South-West Monsoon may arrive at the Kerala coast on May 29, which is three days earlier than the scheduled date. The forecast is subjected to a model error of +/- 4 days
With the strengthening of monsoon winds and widespread rainfall activity, the South-West Monsoon advanced into southeast Bay of Bengal and Andaman & Nicobar Islands on May 12, almost eight days in advance. The monsoon system usually advances by its two wings – the eastern wing which advances over Bay of Bengal and the western wing which advances over the Arabian Sea.
Quoting the forecasts of global agencies, Center for Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies (COLA), International Research Institute for Climate Studies and Policy (IRI) and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast, FE on May 13 had said that the South-West Monsoon may arrive at the Kerala coast about five to seven days earlier.
The IMD while making its present forecast has taken into consideration six predictors – minimum temperature over north-west India, pre-monsoon rainfall peak over southern peninsula, outgoing long wave radiation over south China Sea, lower tropospheric zonal wind over southeast Indian Ocean, upper tropospheric zonal wind over the east equatorial Indian Ocean and outgoing long wave radiation over south-west Pacific region.
The IMD, in its initial forecast made on April 16, this year had said that average cumulative rainfall over the country in the four-month monsoon season would be 99% of the long period average of 89 cm. This forecast is subjected to a model error of +/-5 %.
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National Network In - THE INDIAN EXPRESS
Prepare for an early monsoon
ASHOK B SHARMA
Posted online: Tuesday, May 13, 2008 at 0033 hrs
Posted online: Tuesday, May 13, 2008 at 0033 hrs
NEW DELHI, MAY 12: Here is some good news. The South-West Monsoon is likely to hit Kerala coast about five to seven days before the scheduled date of June 1.
A convection developing in the Arabian Sea may cause a strong south equatorial current to push the monsoon system to the Kerala coast at an earlier date, according to some global forecast models. The forecast made by the US-based Center for Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies (COLA) shows the arrival of dark monsoon clouds along Kerala coast in May 20-28. Another US based agency, International Research Institute for Climate Studies (IRI) has predicted heavy rains on the west coast. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is expected to forecast the arrival of the monsoon at the Kerala coast within next two days.
Already the persistence of convection over southeast Bay of Bengal has caused early arrival of the monsoon in the Andaman Seas. Usually the south-west monsoon arrive at south Andaman Seas around May 15. This year it arrived on May 10.
According to IMD, the formation of low pressure area in the adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal coupled with further strengthening of westerlies would further cause the advancement of the monsoon in its eastern arm. The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast has also predicted on this line.
Thus both the eastern and the western arms of the monsoon system are likely to cause early arrival of the monsoon on the mainland. Recent events in Malaysia, Thailand and forecasts by global agencies confirm early arrival of the monsoon.
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Monsoon may hit Kerala a week in advance - In THE FINANCIAL EXPRESS
ASHOK B SHARMA
Posted online: Tuesday , May 13, 2008 at 2158 hrs IST
Posted online: Tuesday , May 13, 2008 at 2158 hrs IST
New Delhi, May 12 Here is some good news. The South-west Monsoon is likely to hit Kerala coast about five to seven days before the scheduled date of June 1.
A convection developing in the Arabian Sea may cause a strong south equatorial current to push the monsoon system to the Kerala coast at an earlier date, according to some global forecast models. The forecast made by the US-based Center for Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies (COLA) shows the arrival of dark monsoon clouds along Kerala coast in May 20-28. Another US based agency, International Research Institute for Climate Studies has predicted heavy rains on the west coast.
The India Meteorological Department is expected to forecast the arrival of the monsoon at the Kerala coast within next two days. Already the persistence convection over southeast Bay of Bengal has caused early arrival of the monsoon in the Andaman Seas. Usually, the south-west monsoon arrive at the South Andaman Seas around May 15. This year it arrived on May 10. Weather forecasters have predicted widespread rains over Andaman and Nicobar islands during the next three to four days and further strengthening of westerly winds in the region.
According to IMD, the formation of low pressure area in the adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal coupled with further strengthening of westerlies would further cause the advancement of the monsoon in its eastern arm. The European Centre for medium range weather forecast has also predicted on this line.
Thus, both the eastern and the western arms of the monsoon system are likely to cause early arrival of the monsoon on the mainland. Recent events in Malaysia, Thailand and forecasts by global agencies confirm early arrival of the monsoon.
India's 750 million farmers rely on the timing of the June-September monsoon season to decide which crops to grow.
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