Thailand: The trouble with Thaksin
Editorial, The Guardian,
"Thaksin, Thaksin, give us a wave," chanted the crowd at Manchester City last week, saluting the club's owner, the former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. His stadium appearance was evidence of the extraordinary resilience of a man thrown out of power in 2006 in a military coup, Thailand's first non-constitutional change of government for 15 years. But Thaksin is back - and Thailand may be about to suffer the consequences.
Late last month he returned to Bangkok for the first time since the army evicted him. "I don't want to get involved in politics," he said soon after arriving, which as political claims go is at the unconvincing end of unbelievable. He faces a series of corruption charges, which he dismisses as politically motivated. In the meantime, he has been strengthening his power base. A recent army reshuffle saw officers involved in the coup sidelined.
The perpetual sadness of Thai politics is that the country has come close to stability and sustained democracy, but always fallen short. Thailand is not the first country to suffer political strain from rapid economic development, but Thaksin has made the situation acute. The military coup that removed him was the result of political failure, not a cause of it, a response to a form of capitalist autocracy. The coup was initially popular, at least in Bangkok where the urban middle-class took a dim view of billionaire personality politics. Nor was it opposed by the king. But the army proved unable to find an electable alternative and suffered as a result in a general election last Christmas.
The trouble for Thaksin's critics is that he remains more popular than they do. Although his former party, Thai Rak Thai, was not allowed to take part in the election, its successor, the People's Power party, was - and it won. Thaksin handpicked its leader, Samak Sundaravej, an ageing rightwing politician and sometime TV chef. His government is now struggling to improve Thailand's rate of economic growth.
Another coup is unlikely. But if Thailand is to sustain effective democracy, Thaksin's opponents need to come to terms with the reasons for his popularity - not just his wealth and past control of much of the media (although these helped) but his courting of the rural poor in central and northern Thailand, who have gained almost nothing from the boom that has turned Bangkok into a playground for the global elite. Thaksin offered cheap medical care to those who could not afford private charges. That does not make him a democrat, or the right leader for his country. But if he and his kind are not to take more and more power, as the king's health weakens, Thailand must strengthen its democracy, and not fall into conflict and coups.
http://www.guardian
Monday March 24 2008
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